39 % customs duties on Swiss exports to the United States: the punitive measures imposed by Donald Trump mainly strike pharmaceuticals, watches and machine tools. For the economist Michael Bolliger, this situation reveals strategic gaps – but also opportunities for improvement.
Image :
Keystone
Not time? Blue News sums up for you
- After the 39% customs duties imposed by US President Donald Trump on Swiss goods, the stock market reaction has remained moderate, although Switzerland, dependent on exports, is strongly affected.
- Michael Bolliger, UBS expert, believes that the lack of room for maneuver in negotiations and the absence of credible retaliation options constitute disadvantages for Switzerland compared to larger actors such as EU or China.
- It recommends more pragmatic strategies on the model of other countries and expects customs duties to stabilize at a lower level in the medium term.
What was wrong? This is the question posed by the press a week ago, after US President Donald Trump imposed customs duties of 39% on Swiss goods. It is tempting to reject the fault on the other camp. But in reality, the real question to ask itself is the following: what could we have done otherwise?
The simplest answer to this question is obvious: the president of the Confederation Karin Keller-Sutter should have negotiated better. But it’s not easy with a personality like Donald Trump.
Do not panic, the SMI remains stable, but …
Michael Bolliger, Chief Investment Officer Switzerland at UBS, offers another reading of the situation. “We are always smarter afterwards. This also applies to American customs policy, ”he told Blue News. Despite the taxation of customs duties raised by the United States on August 1, the reaction of the stock market markets remained surprisingly measured.
“The SMI closed the session down just 0.2%. As a reminder, when President Trump announced reciprocal ‘customs’ duties on April 2, the index had dropped almost 15 % in the following days, “continues Bolliger.
According to him, Switzerland, as an economy dependent on exports, is more exposed to American customs duties than many other countries and presents a very high trade surplus with the United States for goods. Bolliger explains: “Exports of pharmaceuticals and gold are largely responsible for it, but also the machinery, luxury products and watchmaking”.
Switzerland is also disadvantaged at the negotiating table. “For a small country, negotiations can be more difficult, especially because threats of reprisals are neither really credible nor effective.” Measures such as Chinese Rares of Rare Land export, which showed American armaments and technology groups the vulnerability of their supply chains, would not be possible for Switzerland.
Switzerland should have been inspired by its neighbors
“A good dose of pragmatism has not given great results elsewhere, but more or less acceptable results,” explains the expert. In the EU, competence in matters of foreign direct investments or imports of weapons and energy belongs to member states and companies, not to the European Commission. But that would not have prevented the chairman of the commission from reporting large -scale purchase and investment intentions.
Bolliger says: “We believe that Switzerland still has a room for progression in this area. Consequently, we are confident in the fact that the American customs duties will finally stabilize at a lower level. ”
In summary, this suggests that Switzerland should have been inspired by the strategy adopted by other countries. Has she underestimated the risk? The question remains open. One thing is certain: companies, the political world – and, in the end, the population – must now deal with the customs duties imposed by the Trump administration.
Customary duties archive
AI notice: this article was translated from German using artificial intelligence.
