Belgian inflation fell to 2.9 % in the second quarter of 2025

Energy prices continued to increase, but less strongly (3.2 % compared to the same period last year). It seems a lot, but at the start of the year, during the first quarter, the increase still reached 14.2 %. Energy inflation therefore slows down strongly, mainly due to the disappearance of the effect of the basic energy package from which consumers benefited between November 2022 and March 2023.

The drop in the price of the barrel of crude oil and the appreciation of the euro compared to the dollar led to a drop in prices of fuel oil and fuels in Belgium and our main neighbors (Netherlands, France and Germany). Belgium is however the only country affected by an increase in electricity prices. Electricity network prices increased sharply and wholesale prices were higher than the previous year. But this comparison must be nuanced. Despite a higher inflation rate in Belgium, the German consumer paid 5 % more for electricity. In France, electricity was also 33 % cheaper.

The second quarter of 2025 was also favorable to neighboring countries. All have seen their total inflation drop. The Netherlands have experienced the highest inflation, just ahead of Belgium.

In the past six months (between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025), total inflation has dropped not only for energy, but also for almost all product groups. The drop in food prices is mainly due to the decrease in inflation for tobacco.

If we examine the consumption prices of processed food products without taking into account tobacco and alcohol, there is an increase in inflation from 1.9 % to 3.0 %. The prices of dairy and chocolate products are the main responsible for this increase. The decrease in the number of dairy cow breeders and the ovine catarrhale fever epidemic in 2024 led to a reduction in the livestock and therefore a drop in milk production. This situation results in an increase in prices of cheese and dairy products. Chocolate inflation went from 5.8 % in the second quarter of 2024 to 13.8 % in the second quarter of 2025, more than double. In question: the increase in the price of cocoa due to extreme weather conditions in the main producing countries in West Africa.

An increase in carcasses prices since January 2025 has led to a significant increase in the price of beef in stores. In the past six months, it has increased by 8.9 %, which has been unprecedented since the inflationary crisis of 2022. Once again, the cause lies in a drop in the supply of beef. The structural reduction of the livestock, combined with high mortality due to the epidemic of Catarrhale ovine from last summer, is originally.

After reaching a peak in the third quarter of 2023 (6.7 %), inflation affecting services (including travel, rents and restaurants) has now fallen to 3.5 %. Consumer prices of mobile telephony services have even decreased compared to the same period of the past year (-20 % in the first quarter and -14.2 % in the second quarter). This is probably explained by the arrival of a new player on the telecommunications market in the fall of 2024 and the reaction of competitors in this regard.

Inflation concerning industrial goods has been very limited both in Belgium and in neighboring countries. Currently, the price pressure is low in this chain and most indicators display a favorable price evolution (industrial raw material prices, Brent price, appreciation of the euro compared to the currencies of the main business partners).