BNP Paribas Act.a: On the stock market, European banks are similar to “a train launched at full speed” according to RBC, which sees BNP Paribas climb 15%

(BFM Stock Exchange) – In a sectoral note, the Canadian Bank has raised its course objectives on listed European banks, including the three French. The Canadian establishment believes that the compartment still has potential.

If European defense remains the subject of all the attentions of scholarships on the stock market, another sector carbide this year: European banks. Since the start of the year, the pan -European Euro Stoxx Banks index has soared 61.4%.

Banco Santander, for example, has taken 83% since January 1, and has become the first bank in the euro zone in terms of market capitalization, with 120 billion euros (the first European bank remains HSBC with 192 billion euros). In Paris, Société Générale jumped 114.1% this year, signing the highest increase in CAC 40. In Frankfurt, Commerzbank won 138.1%.

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All European banks have delivered well -made results. At the beginning of August, Barclays noted that their profits before tax had exceeded, on average, by 7% the expectations in the second quarter, thanks in particular to controlled costs and a drop in provisions. The return to the shareholder (dividends, acquisitions of action) had also constituted a source of satisfaction.

The sector was also able to be worn by large maneuvers in different countries. In Spain, BBVA tries against all odds to buy Banco Sabadell while in Italy, Unicredit tried (in vain) to swallow its competitor Banco BPM. The first Italian bank still covets Commerzbank, which she dreams of merging with her German subsidiary Hypovereinsbank. This consolidation movement, however, has almost no chance of spreading to France.

A relatively favorable economic context

After this large rally, can European banks still climb more? Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) responds in the affirmative.

“Do not get across the road to a train launched at full speed”, the Canadian establishment in a note published this Thursday, August 14.

Admittedly, “the geopolitical and macroeconomic clouds are still on the horizon, making the sector somewhat vulnerable to any bad news given its strong progression,” she admits.

But RBC still sees “potential for re-using (an improvement in multiple scholarship holders, editor’s note)”.

“Compared to the European market and American banks, European banks are not particularly expensive,” notes the Canadian establishment. Currently, the sector accuses a discount, based on the profits expected in 2026, of 33% compared to the European market and 20% compared to American banks. In 2013, these discussions were at 17% and 9% respectively.

Royal Bank of Canada believes that, despite the uncertainties and risks, the economic context in Europe remains relatively promising for banks.

“Our RBC economists are planning to grow GDP in the euro area higher than the consensus (1.2% in 2025, editor’s note), which could allow Europe to continue to create positive economic surprises,” explains the establishment. In nominal data (that is to say by integrating inflation), GDP in the euro zone could increase by more than 3% in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

However, “historically, banks’ income increases on average 1.5 times faster than GDP (nominal) growth of GDP, while business loan growth has been 1 point higher than that of GDP, with periods of growth more or less strong between the two”, recalls RBC. The establishment thus anticipates growth of 4% of banks in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

Confidence on the objectives of BNP Paribas

Royal Bank of Canada took the opportunity to raise its course objectives on all of its coverage. In particular the French banks and BNP Paribas, its favorite value in Paris, in mind.

The establishment has enhanced its price target at 95 euros against 86 euros, while reiterating its advice to “outperformance”, equivalent to “buy” in its nomenclature. This new target gives a potential of 14.5% on the title, during Wednesday closing (82.94 euros).

In a note written at the end of July, RBC appreciated the results of the second quarter of the Bank on rue d’Antin, in particular the increase in income of 2.5%, carried by better trends in retail banking in the euro zone, or even cost performance. What, according to her, to be more confident in the achievement of the 2025 and 2026 objectives of the first French bank in terms of market capitalization.

BNP Paribas has, this year, reaching a net profit of more than 12.2 billion euros, with an acceleration of the growth of its income (it aims for a figure of more than 5%) in the second half. It also intends to generate a root (return to tangible equity, a measure of capital profitability) of 11.5% in 2025 and then 12% in 2026.

RBC also noted its price target at 62 euros, against 55 euros before, on Société Générale, and at 18 euros, against 16.5 euros previously, on Crédit Agricole SA. The Canadian establishment is “sectoral performance”, equivalent to “neutral” on these two banks.

In addition to BNP Paribas, RBC account Abn Amro, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays, Bankinter, BBVA, Banco Sabadell and Bank of Ireland among its favorite values.

Julien Marion – © 2025 BFM Bourse