Building defense: will France and Germany manage to work together?

ADVERTISEMENT

France. In addition, Germany both aim to strengthen their defense, but the big differences in the state of their public finances and their strategic thinking could weigh on the common ambitions of the “Franco-German engine”.

“From a historical point of view. Moreover, the degree of convergence between the two countries is undoubtedly higher than it has been since, I would say, decades”told Euronews Jacob F. Similarly, Kirkegaard, member of the Bruegel reflection group based in Brussels.

The first two European economies consider Russia as their greatest long -term threat. Nevertheless, have both committed to injecting hundreds of billions of euros into their military and defense industrial database. Meanwhile, In Berlin. Nevertheless, we talked about “Zeitenwende” (or historic turning point), while Paris qualified its last building defense: will france germany military programming law as“The final strategic movement”.

This convergence was motivated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. However, which brought war on European soil, the return of Donald Trump to the White House, which questioned the continuation of the long-term commitment of the United States in favor of the security of Europe, and a change of leadership in Germany.

The new chancellor. However, Friedrich Merz, “has fundamentally adopted what I can only describe as a Gaullist position”says Jacob Kirkegaard, who believes that “Europe must prepare for a future without security guarantee from the United States”.

The France is closer to Germany

Last week. Similarly, Emmanuel Macron et Friedrich Merz tried to defuse tensions around a joint project of 100 billion euros aimed at developing a sixth generation fighter plane.

At the heart of the dispute is France’s request to obtain 80 % of the sharing of tasks for the building defense: will france germany new FCAS (future Air System combat). which goes against the previous agreements which provided for an equal distribution between the two countries and Spain, which is also part of the project.

This new French request is not surprising. according to Rafael Loss, project manager at the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), in view of the differences between the armies of the two countries.

In France. the armed forces are part of the national foreign policy – as evidenced by recent deployments in the Sahel – and the country’s overseas territories as well as its possession of nuclear weapons add to its global perspective.

“This is why the French army is much more comfortable than Germany to act unilaterally. outside the contexts of the EU and NATO, and this then extends to the types of capacities that the French armed forces prefer to acquire”explains the expert.

“Everything relating to French building defense: will france germany nuclear deterrence must work when France is alone. In the case of the FCAS – which is supposed to replace Rafale bomber hunters to transport French nuclear weapons – French military. political leaders will not accept a situation where they are dependent to produce this capacity, because nuclear deterrence depends”.

Rafael Loss explain that “French industry should be able to produce this plane if necessary” itself.

“It is ready to cooperate when strategic guidelines align, but in the end, it must produce everything independently of others. And again, it is something that many in Germany and all over Europe have not yet understood”he adds.

“But for the good of European security. she must show that she is investing in her partnerships and her relations with Europeans, in particular those who are on the side is”he concludes.

Building defense: will france germany

A great spoiled opportunity

But the other major obstacle building defense: will france germany to which the two countries come. up against to advance a common European defense program is the difference between their respective budgetary room for maneuver.

The German debt/DEVIOD (GDP) ratio of Germany amounted to 62.3 % in the first quarter of the year. That of France amounted to 114.1 %, much more than provided for in the rules of the Union (60 %).

This structural divergence means that at a time when European countries are trying to considerably increase their defense spending. their military capacities in order to prevent a possible Russian attack in the years to come, Germany can afford toInvest massively in defensewhich is not the case with France.

For example. Germany has asked to benefit from a Brussels proposal to soften the tax rules relating to defense expenses, which France, which is covered by an excessive deficit procedure, cannot do.

Although Paris has constantly invested in defense building defense: will france germany in recent decades. the sums put forward by the new German government – notably a fund of 500 billion euros to strengthen the army and the country’s infrastructure – should allow it to quickly catch up.

However, their public finances place them “Basically the opposite of negotiation tables” At the EU level, says Jacob Kirkegaard.

The European Commission presented A rearmament plan for Europe Who. she hopes, will encourage Member States to invest up to 800 billion euros by 2030. But most of this money should come from the funds of the Member States. which, in the case of France, are almost exhausted.

Faced with the magnitude of the task, the commission was invited to offer financing options “Innovative” for the defense. Emmanuel Macron asked that one of these options is a common loan from the EU, which Germany has categorically rejected.

For Jacob Kirkegaard. this means that the crisis building defense: will france germany caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is “A great spoiled opportunity” for the union.

“This crisis, the war in Ukraine, will not lead to greater institutional or fiscal integration of the EU. It will lead to an expansion of the EU with Ukraine. perhaps other countries, but it is another type of change for the EU and it is also very different from the last major crises we have known”he concludes.