(Zonebourse.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange is expected to open moderate on Wednesday morning, investors continuing to greet the reassuring figures for inflation published yesterday in the United States, even if the session could take a summer air in view of the reduced volumes which now characterize the exchanges and relatively thin news on the side of companies and the economy.
Around 8:05 am, the ‘Future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – August deadline – wins 27 points at 7,783 points, revealing a prosecution of the timid rebound started the day before (+0.7%).
Yesterday, the equity markets politely welcomed the publication of an American consumer price index (ICC) generally in accordance with expectations which seems to leave the way for the federal reserve to reduce its rates next month.
These data brought back some serenity in markets made worried by the impact of customs from Donald Trump and above all enabled Wall Street to establish new records yesterday.
But the traders began to desert the market rooms for their summer holidays and the consecutive decline in activity volumes does not allow us to hope for sustainable start in August, a period historically not favorable to actions.
Investors, however, still expect some important events in the coming days, before perhaps sinking for good in summer torpor, starting with the holding on Friday in Alaska of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin who should keep the markets awake.
The Jackson Hole symposium, which brings together the major central bankers on the planet, could also cause some upheavals on the markets next week, as is the publication of the quarterly Nvidia results scheduled for August 27.
All bad news could be used as an excuse to reduce positions and withdraw some money from the table after the good performance of the stock markets in recent weeks.
Retail sales statistics for the month of July, expected on Friday in the United States, will also take on a particular relief after the disappointment caused at the beginning of the month by disappointing US employment figures.
‘Even if GDP has significantly rebounded in the second quarter (….), the growth in consumption expenditure in the first quarter was significantly lower than the average observed over the whole of last year, “recalls Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France.
‘Consumption being the spine of American growth, the week (…) will allow the markets to see a little more clearly on the risk of stagflation, theme that has taken up a little traction for some time,’ said the strategist.
The latest employment report has even led some observers to mention an increased risk of recession.
According to a recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, taken up by Pictet AM teams, the probability that the American economy has already entered recession reaches 71%.
‘Occupational market conditions characteristic of a recession are not looming on the horizon; They are already there, reveals the report, based on an in -depth analysis of the labor market during the 15 American recessions identified between 1929 and 2021.
With the end of the season of results and summer holidays, business announcements are, however, rather rare and few values really stand out on the stock market on both sides of the Atlantic.
Investors will however be careful, this evening, of the results of the equipment supplier of the Cisco Systems networks, looking for indications on the pace of business technological spending.
On the currency market, the euro continues its ascent against the dollar, towards 1.1690, the day after the figures for American inflation which validated 94% the scenario of a drop in Fed rates on September 17, according to the Fedwatch tool.
With regard to the bond, the yield of American state loans at 10 years old stabilizes around 4.29%
The oil prices continue to fall pending Friday’s strategic meeting in Alaska, which could decide the fate of Ukraine.
The barrel of American light crude decreases 0.1% to 63.1 dollars and that of Brent fell from 0.1% to less than $ 66.1.
