Statistics Canada announced Thursday that the country’s commercial deficit in the country – the difference between exports and imports – reduced to $ 5.9 billion in May, thanks to the rise in gold exports.
This result is to be compared to the 7.6 billion trade deficit recorded in April – a record level, which, according to Statistics Canada, was revised upwards compared to the initial estimates of 7.1 billion.
Canadian exports increased in early 2025, businesses hastened to get ahead of American customs duties, but this rushed action was followed by a slowdown in activity in April and May. After a relatively solid start to the year, the figures for the real gross domestic product of Statistics Canada indicate a decrease of 0.1 % in April and the first estimates plan the same drop in May.
“Despite what the figures reveal on a monthly basis, the commercial context remains a challenge,” said Shelly Kaushik, main economist at the BMO.
If the rise in metallic and non-metallic mineral products are excluded, total exports decreased by 1.2 % in May, while exports to the United States fell 0.9 %.
Statistics Canada said exports to the United States have decreased for a fourth consecutive month in May, due to the current trade conflict. Imports have also decreased for a third consecutive month.
A reorientation that is not done overnight
The federal organization said that the share of Canadian exports intended for the United States was 68.3 % in May, down compared to the monthly average of 2024 of 75.9 %.
Ms Kaushik said in a note Thursday to its customers that the proportion of exports to the south of the border had reached its lowest level since 1997, with the exception of the years of pandemic.
Representing even more than two-thirds of Canadian exports, the United States remains the main export market in Canada, and that will probably not change in the predictable future, said Kaushik.
Despite the existence of various customs duties, especially on the steel and aluminum industries, Ms. Kaushik said that many companies will always find their products on the other side of the immense Canadian-American land border rather than shipping them abroad, or even inside Canada.
“It is simply because they are our biggest neighbor, but also the greatest economy in the world,” she said. If this desire for diversification beyond the United States is maintained, it will take several months, even several years. ”
In return, Statistics Canada said exports to countries other than the United States increased by 5.7 % over the month, reaching a historic summit.
Total exports increased by 1.1 % in May to $ 60.8 billion, exports of metal products and non -metallic mineral products increased by 15.1 %. This variation is attributable to an increase of 30.1 % of gold, silver and metal exports of the platinum group in raw form and their alloys, a category composed largely of raw gold.
This progression is mainly attributable to the rise in physical gold expeditions to the United Kingdom, according to Statistics Canada.
Total goods trade with countries other than the United States reached $ 47.6 billion in May, which, according to the federal body, is a consecutive third historic summit.
In addition to gold intended in the United Kingdom, Statistics Canada said that the increase in crude oil expeditions to Singapore and aluminum in raw form and pharmaceutical products to Italy has been counterbalanced by the drop in exports to China.
Carney and Trump: What is coming?
Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canada Chamber of Commerce, said Thursday that gains in terms of commercial diversification are “encouraging”, but that obstacles to the American border will not be lifted anytime.
“The worst is perhaps behind us, but the way back will probably be strewn with pitfalls,” he said in a written statement.
At the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta last month, Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump agreed with a deadline for July 21 to come to an agreement on trade relations between the two countries.
Ms. Kaushik stressed that the previous deadlines in the trade conflict have been pushed back and that little clarity has materialized since she described as a “summit” of uncertainty in April.
Although trade statistics in May mark an improvement compared to April, Ms. Kaushik indicated that the monthly data can be volatile.
And although the BMO expects a greater certainty on the commercial level over the year, it said that Canadian exporters will continue to experience difficulties.
“I think the general picture clearly shows that trade will remain very difficult in this very uncertain context,” said Kaushik. This will continue to weigh heavily on the Canadian economy. ”
In addition, total imports decreased by 1.6 % in May to 66.7 billion dollars, imports of metal products and non -metallic mineral products that dropped by 16.8 %. Imports of gold, silver and metals of the platinum in raw form dropped by 43.2 %.
In volume, total exports increased by 0.7 % in May, while total imports decreased by 0.6 % for the month.
