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Canada | inflation goes up,:
The announcement Tuesday of a rise in the inflation rate to 1.9 % in June. In addition, a few days after the amazing drop in the unemployment rate for the same month, could encourage the Bank of Canada to postpone a next drop in interest rates.
Updated yesterday at 11:30 p.m.
This is what is emerging from the analysis comments of. In addition, economists in the banking sector following the monthly update of consumer prices data by Statistics Canada.
“Despite certain signs of economic slowdown attributable to trade tensions with the United States. Similarly, I believe that canada | inflation goes up, the Banque du Canada (BDC) will attach more importance to recent employment gains and the inflation rebound,” said Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist in the Desjardins movement.
“Thus, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its 2.75 % key interest rate at its next meeting at the end of July. However, with economic clouds still on the horizon, I expect it to regain the drop in interest rates in September. Therefore, »»
At the National Bank. Meanwhile, the economist Matthieu Arseneau considers that “given the inflation data published on Tuesday, it is even more likely that the Banque du Canada will remain on the sidelines in July, especially since employment in the private sector shows signs of recovery according to employment data in June”.
In this context, reports Mr. Arsenault. “if the Canadian economy was weakened in the first half by uncertainty linked to customs duties, as evidenced by the drop in GDP in April and May and the increase in the unemployment rate between February and June, this has not yet resulted in a drop in inflationary pressures. It sometimes takes time for economic weaknesses to affect inflation, and this is probably the case today. ”
In the opinion of Douglas Porter. chief economist at the Banque de Montréal (BMO), inflation data in June published Tuesday, in addition to the “solid employment report in June” published last week, “practically gave no reason to the Bank of Canada to justify a drop in rates at its meeting at the end of canada | inflation goes up, July”.
In fact. says Douglas Porter, “We will have to observe a significant deceleration of basic inflation [excluant les prix fluctuants de l’essence] For a drop in rate to be possible at the Bank of Canada, even at the September meeting, unless a strong deterioration of the economy as a result of the uncertainty linked to customs prices. “
At CIBC Bank. the main economist Ali Jaffery also anticipates that the Banque du Canada will maintain its key interest rate at its current level (2.75 %) at its meeting on July 30.
“Waiting in the fall will give him more time to observe inflationary pressures. have a more precise idea of the impact of the shock of uncertainty of customs duties on the Canadian economy,” said Jaffery.
Canada | inflation goes up.
Inflation rebound
According to data published Tuesday by Statistics Canada, the pace of inflation accelerated in June, especially because consumers paid more for certain lasting goods, such as vehicles and furniture.
The consumer price inflation rate over one year was 1.9 % in June, up compared to 1.7 % observed in May. In Quebec, annual inflation was 2.2 % in June after being 1.7 % in May.
According to Statistics Canada. the inflation rate accelerated in June while petrol prices decreased to a lesser extent in June compared to May.
In addition, motor vehicles prices displayed an increase of 4.1 %, canada | inflation goes up, compared to 3.2 % in May. The prices of used vehicles experienced their first increase from one year to another in 18 months. while the stocks of traders were more limited.
On the other hand, the inflation of food prices purchased in stores has slowed down slightly, from 3.4 % in May to 2.9 % in June. According to Statistics Canada, this slowdown is largely attributable to the prices of fresh vegetables, which decreased by 3.1 % over a year.
The inflation of housing prices continued to slow down. falling from a tenth of a percentage point, to establish itself at 2.9 % in June.
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