On the Chicago Stock Exchange as in Paris, the courses fell back this week, but on Euronext in particular they were still supported.
No summer break this year for the cereal markets, faced on both sides of the Atlantic with the uncertainties linked in particular to the trade war initiated by Donald Trump.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange as in Paris, the courses fell back this week, but on Euronext in particular they were still supported.
While the harvests are progressing, the first balance sheets are positive, from the United States to Europe.
The US Ministry of Agriculture (USDA) revised on Monday the state of soybeans, good or excellent for 70% of crops. It is even 73% for corn, with conditions at the highest for almost 40 years in Iowa, key producer state.
“The performance prospects are quite interesting for the moment, and this in a way prevents any recovery” of courses, summarizes Alan Brugler, from Brugler Marketing and Management.
Tuesday in Chicago, wheat has closed at the lowest for a month, when corn had a short drop over the week, at a more level seen since fall 2024.
“The corn crops of the southern hemisphere and wheat of the northern hemisphere are flocking” now, underlines Sébastien Poncelet, broker at Argus Média in Paris, which also notes that after heavy rains “the Russian volumes, although delay, converge a little more towards the ports”.
Tunisian glow for France
Despite everything, the courses remain generally supported, when the end of July often sees them relax with the end of the harvests, notes the analyst who qualifies the summer of “atypical”: “the fact that nothing happens, that time is in suspension, it is rather atypical. Otherwise, the trends are more marked ”.
One of the reasons is that producers from around the world hold their volumes, awaiting more profitable prices, while at the same time the international demand is still waiting.
Damien Vercambre, from the Inter-Cuttage cabinet, reports a “little glow” for French wheat: Tunisia imported this week a boat of 30,000 tonnes, which had not been seen “for a long time”.
“It’s been a long time since Tunisia had lost (wheat) of the Black Sea. Today if it buys French wheat, it is that this wheat has a certain competitiveness “, with” a rather very good quality, and a price which has certainly mounted but slower than (that) of the Black Sea “(Ukraine, Russia), explains the analyst.
“We will see if it continues and if it can lead to other destinations” capable of replacing Algeria or China customers, “he adds.
Chinese unknown
Suspended, the markets are also after negotiations on customs taxes initiated by Washington.
The agreement announced on Sunday with Brussels should be “neutral” overall for cereals, Europe raising little in the United States, judge analysts.
However, this agreement also brought the euro back in 48 hours to its end of June compared to the dollar. “This provides support at the prices of European grains,” notes Mr. Poncelet.
In the United States, operators scrutinize the outcome of Sino-American negotiations with concern, while new talks ended Tuesday without agreement.
“Persistent fears concerning trade agreements on agricultural products” weigh on prices, and the absence of agreement with China particularly worries market players, notes Michael Zuzolo, from the Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting.
Beijing turns to Argentina, especially for soybeans or corn. “This is the first time in many years,” said the analyst, for whom “this calls into question the real will of China to conclude a trade agreement with the United States concerning agricultural products”.
For him, “the only substitute for China (for American exports, editor’s note) would be India”.
Jack Scoville, from Price Futures Group, provides for another consequence of this trade war: “Even after the end of negotiations, important customs duties will continue to be imposed on American importers” on products from abroad. With the key, less imports, “this is obviously what the American government wishes, and the risk that in return, American products become less desirable to export, he fears.
