Keystone-SDA
Chinese exports jumped in June, according to official data published on Monday, going beyond forecasts of economists after the conclusion by Washington and Beijing of a truce to reduce their trade tensions.
(Keystone-ATS) According to Chinese customs, exports climbed 5.8% over a year last month, exceeding forecasts of economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency, which were tabling on an increase of 5%. Imports also climbed 1.1%, again beyond market expectations (+0.3%).
Crucial figures for Beijing: Chinese exports, which reached record levels last year, serves as an engine for a loss of speed economy.
The Chinese partner is struggling to maintain its growth levels past since the end of the pandemic, due to a long crisis in the real estate sector, chronically low in domestic consumption and high unemployment among young people.
The trade war with the United States launched at the start of the year by US President Donald Trump aggravated the situation. But last month, Washington and Beijing agreed on the framework of an agreement during discussions in London, without paying persistent disputes.
As a result of this precarious truce, Chinese exports for the United States increased by 32.4% in June compared to the previous month: the Asian giant sent some $ 38.2 billion in the United States last month, compared to $ 28.8 billion in May.
“The growth in the value of exports bounced somewhat last month, thanks to the commercial break between the United States and China,” observes Zichun Huang of Capital Economics.
“But customs duties (American) will probably remain high and Chinese manufacturers are facing increasing constraints about their ability to quickly increase their market share by breaking prices,” said Huang, who expects a slowdown in export growth.
Uncertainty
For Zhiwei Zhang, of Pinpoint Asset Management, these figures testify to the dynamics engaged by Chinese companies to accelerate the pace of cargoes for the United States in anticipation of future customs duties restored after the end of the current break.
“The vigor of exports partly contributes to compensating for the weakness of domestic demand and should make it possible to maintain the growth of GDP around the government objective of 5% in the second quarter,” analyzes the economist.
But “the prospects for the second half of the year remain uncertain,” he adds.
Beijing “hopes that the United States will continue to work with China in the same direction,” the Chinese customs manager Wang Lingjun said on Monday at a press conference broadcast by CCTV public television.
“Blackmail and coercion do not lead anywhere. Dialogue and cooperation are the right way to follow, “he added.
As a whole, experts believe that the Chinese economy will grow more than 5% in the second quarter of 2025, carried by exports. The level of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the period must be unveiled on Tuesday.
However, they also believe that the trade war could lead to a sharp slowdown during the second half.
Taking testifying to an ever -gloomy situation, consumer prices in China have barely increased in June after four months of decline, while the production price index fell back last month at its highest rate (3.6%) for almost two years, according to the National Statistics Bureau.
Many economists argue that China should turn to a growth model based more on its domestic demand than on its usual levers that are investment in infrastructure, production and exports.
