Keystone-SDA
Manufacturing activity in China has returned to positive territory in June, according to an independent index published Tuesday, when Beijing and Washington say they have concluded a general agreement to resolve their commercial disputes.
(Keystone-ATS) In June, the activity index of purchasing directors (PMI), calculated by the Cabinet S&P Global and the Chinese economic media Caixin, established 50.4 points, against 48.3 in May.
It exceeds the 50 -point mark, which reflects an expansion of manufacturing activity -below, it would be a contraction -, thwarting the forecasts of the Bloomberg agency which anticipated a contraction at 49.3 points.
This figure “confirms that the economy resumed of the momentum last month, in particular thanks to the commercial break between the United States and China,” notes Zichun Huang, of the Capital Economics Studies Company.
But “we remain cautious about the prospects, because a slowdown in exports and less marked budgetary support should brake the activity in the second half,” adds the economist.
The second world economy faces a long crisis in the real estate sector and consumption at half mast, all aggravated by export difficulties.
In response, Beijing has increased consumption stimulation measures since last year, such as interest rate drops, real estate support measures, and incentives for the purchase of vehicles and household appliances.
“Some of the recovery policies have been able to stimulate short -term consumption,” notes Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin quoted in the survey.
But a long-term robust consumption “still depends on factors such as stabilization of employment, strengthening confidence and increased income,” he adds.
A sign of these weaknesses, the level of confidence of companies, selling prices, employment and new export orders all slowed down in June, according to the Caixin-S & P global study.
The government’s official PMI, published on Monday, had already recorded a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, but had remained in negative territory (49.7).
The Caixin-S & P global survey mainly probe of small and medium-sized enterprises, while the official figure focuses on large state industrial groups, which explains the differences between the two PMIs.
