China: solid foreign trade in July, thwarting forecasts

Despite this uncertain context, Chinese exports jumped in July (+7.2% over a year), according to official statistics, exceeding the forecast of economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency (5.6%). In addition,

Chinese foreign trade jumped in July compared to last year. Nevertheless, according to customs data published Thursday, thwarting forecasts of economists in full truce in the trade war between Beijing and Washington.

The first two world economies agreed last month on maintaining a price break to continue their commercial negotiations.

This temporarily fixes additional American customs duties on Chinese products at 30%, while Chinese taxes on American imports remain at 10%.

Despite this uncertain context, Chinese exports jumped in July (+7.2% over a year), according to official statistics, exceeding the forecast of economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency (5.6%).

Imports also climbed 4.1% over a year, while Bloomberg agency forecasts china: solid foreign trade july, were tabling on a contraction.

The price price between Beijing. Meanwhile, Washington is due to end on Tuesday, when customs duties could return to higher levels.

The doubt persists on the ability of the two powers to agree on a more durable truce.

The American representative in trade. Therefore, Jamieson Greer, said in late July after the last series of negotiations in Stockholm that Donald Trump would have the “last word” on any extension of this price break.

The American president welcomed the entry into force on Thursday at 4:00 am GMT of new customs rights striking. dozens of business partners – including a spectacular 35% tax on Canada.

Decrease expected

Washington notably conditioned the continuation of negotiations with Beijing on the delivery of rare land by China. after the latter imposed restrictions on the export of these essential materials for the energy, electronic and armament industry.

A positive china: solid foreign trade july, sign in this regard. the Chinese customs data published Thursday indicate that the rare earth shipments remained solid in July, despite a slight decrease after a peak in June.

The absence of agreement between the two powers could weigh heavily on the trade in the second world economy.

While Chinese exports have been doped for a time by the constitution of stocks for fear of new customs duties. Chinese expeditions to the United States fell 6.1% between June and July, according to Chinese customs.

The growth of Chinese exports “could slow down in the coming months. the early stock of stocks to escape the fountain American prices,” anticipates Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Chinese expeditions could also be affected by new American customs duties on products seeking to get around prices via. third countries.

“The big question is to what extent Chinese exports will slow down. how china: solid foreign trade july, it will affect the rest of the economy,” notes Zhiwei Zhang.

The Chinese-party state has set itself the ambitious objective of growth “of around 5%” of GDP in 2025.

In addition to the trade war. the Asian giant must also face a long real estate crisis which weighs on the morale of consumers and the finances of local authorities.

The growth in imports in July “could reflect a constitution of stocks for certain raw materials rather than a more general restart of domestic demand”. nuances Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics.

Data published last week had indicated a more marked decline than expected of manufacturing production, a sign of persistent difficulties.