Conflict Israel-Iran: the Strait of Ormuz, strategic passage under high tension

Despite the announcement of a provisional ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Tuesday, Tehran still threatens to retaliate to American strikes by closing the Strait of Ormuz, a channel between Oman and Iran in which about a fifth of crude oil on the planet passes. Similarly, Why is this passage vital for the global economy? Nevertheless, Explanations.

If Iran has not specified how it intends to disturb maritime traffic on this path. Moreover, several methods would be envisaged by the corps of the Islamic revolution which controls naval operations in the Gulf and which is responsible for ensuring the safety of this strait which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Iran could prohibit any navigation there. Consequently, but also increase the number of inspections or enter ships; Strike ships with missiles conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic or submarines from its long coast of the Persian Gulf; And even put mines underwater.

Selon l’Institute for the Study of War (new window)Iran would probably have already disrupted the signals GPS In the Strait of Ormuz on June 22. Meanwhile, making navigation more difficult.

At its broadest point, this strategic crossing point measures approximately 33 kilometers. However, the Strait is only deep enough for large ships in its central part. Nevertheless, Thus, the boats must navigate a channel of ten kilometers wide, which makes them vulnerable to attacks.

A significant economic impact

Experts say that any disruption of the navigable track would lead to significant delays in the world’s delivery of oil. Moreover, would have a considerable effect on prices.

According to the US Energy Information Information Administration (EIA), some 20 million barrels of oil borrow the Strait every day. Furthermore, About one fifth in world trade in liquefied natural gas also passes there, mainly from Qatar.

More than a hundred ships use this strait daily.

Sunday. Furthermore, analysts of Goldman Sachs have planned that the Brent crude oil prices could reach 110 US dollars per barrel if the Strait of Ormuz was blocked conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic (they are currently less than $ 70 a barrel). Moreover, Other analysts said prices could reach $ 120 to 130 a barrel.

The impact of a closure. Nevertheless, disturbances would be particularly important for China, India, Japan and South Korea, the main crude oil importers that passes through this strait.

According to the United States Energy Information Agency. in 2022, around 82 % of crude oil and condensates passing through the Strait were intended for countries in Asia.

The vast majority of oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is transported by the Strait of Ormuz.

The United States imports around 500. 000 barrels of crude oil and condensates per day from the Strait, or around 7 % of their total oil imports and 2 % of their petrol consumption. This is the lowest level in almost 40 years.

Iran also uses conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic this channel to transport its own crude. China buys almost 90 % of Iran oil exports (around 1.6 million barrels per day).

This is why. according to Suzanne Maloney, vice-president and director of foreign policy at the BrooKings Institute, the vote of the Iranian Parliament to authorize the blocking of the Strait is purely symbolic. Such a measure would only affect its own abused economy. compromise its fragile, but precious rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and other Arabic States of the Persian Gulfwrites Ms. Maloney on the BrooKings website (new window).

Moreover. a blockage of the Strait would encroach on the territorial waters of Oman, bringing into play his relationship with this historic mediator country between Iran and the Western countries.

Data from the Data specialist company on raw materials KPLER show (new window) that the number of ships using the Strait of Ormuz decreased in the first days of the. conflict.

Conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic

Different roads?

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The vast majority of oil from Saudi Arabia. the United Arab Emirates is transported by the Strait of Ormuz. But geopolitical instability in the region has pushed these two oil exporting countries to develop other export paths.

For example. Saudi Arabia can count on its East-West pipeline, a 1200 km long pipeline which can transport up to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day to the port of Yanbu, in the Red Sea.

The United Arab Emirates built a pipeline between their oil deposits to the port of Fujairah. in the Gulf of Oman. This pipeline has a daily capacity of 1.5 million barrels. This western road, however, is at risk of attacks by the Yemen Houthis, a group supported by Iran.

Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar currently have no spare options about this strait.

In July 2021. Iran, for its part, inaugurated the Goreh-Jask oil conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic pipeline, which could convey to 350,000 barrels of oil to the Gulf of Oman. On the other hand. in the summer of 2024, Iran exported less than 70,000 barrels per day and has ceased to transport oil there since September 2024.

The United States’s energy information agency believes that these pipelines can transport some 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, or approximately 15 % of the gross currently transported by ship in the Strait of Ormuz.

On the other hand. the transport of oil through these pipelines considerably increases transportation time, which could contribute to the increase in world energy prices.

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Conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic

A highly volatile maritime region

If the Strait of Ormuz has never been completely blocked. it has been disrupted several times.

During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the two countries engaged in a oil war in the Persian Gulf. Iraq has targeted Iranian boats. Iran attacked sales ships, including Saudi and Kuwaitian oilmen and even vessels from the American navy.

Over 500 ships had been destroyed or damaged.

At the request of Kuwait. conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic the American president of the time, Ronald Reagan, had deployed the navy between 1987 and 1988 to protect the convoys of oilmen within the framework of the operation Earnest Will.

Tehran had undermined areas passing through the Strait of Ormuz. On April 14, 1988, the frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts had struck a mine and had almost sunk.

The American operation ended in July 1988 after a frigate of the US Navy had shot the flight 655 of Iran. killing the 290 passengers on board.

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Since then. there has been a series of skirmishes between the Iranian and American navies and the incidents have multiplied in 2018 after the withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement.

In 2019. mysterious attacks against ships in the Gulf region, a slaughtered drone and seized oil tankers had raised a climbing between Tehran and Washington.

On July 29. 2021, an Oman Sea attack against an oil tanker managed by the company of an Israeli billionaire left two people dead. Israel, the United States, Great Britain and Romania had shown Tehran, who had denied any involvement.

In April conflict israel-iran: strait ormuz, strategic 2023, Iranian troops seized the oil tanker Advantage Sweetchartered by Chevron, in the Gulf of Oman. The ship was released more than a year later.

In April 2024. the revolution guards arrested the MSC Aries container ships, who sailed under the Portuguese pavilion, accusing his shipowner of being linked to Israel.

With information from Agency France-Presse, Reuters and the Canadian press