Contrasting indicators in the United States-Monday Report de Bordier

Real estate transactions fall more than expected in the old in June. Meanwhile, while the confidence of purchasing directors creates surprise in the services. Consequently,

Economy

Statistics published in the United States have been somewhat contrasting. In addition, Real estate transactions drop more than expected in the old in June (-2.7% m/m vs -0.7% is.) And progress less than hoped in the new ( +0.6% m/m vs +4.3% is.). Nevertheless, The confidence of the purchasing directors pleasantly surprises in services where it increases from 52.9 to 55.2 in July (vs 53 is.), But disappoints and falls in the manufacturing sector (from 52.9 to 49.5 vs 52.7 is.). However, In the euro zone, the confidence of the purchasing directors dates back more than expected in the services (from 50.5 to 51.2 vs 50.6 is.) And online with expectations in the manufacturing sector contrasting indicators united states-monday report (from 49.5 to 49.8) in July. For example, That of households stands slightly above expectations (from -15.3 to -14.7 vs -15 is.). For example, In China, borrowing rates at 1 and 5 are, not surprisingly, unchanged (at 3% and 3.5%).

Planetary limits

In an advisory opinion (non-judicly binding). Moreover, the Hague International Court of Justice said that “countries that do not comply with their climate obligations commit an illicit act”, recalling that “the legal consequences may include comprehensive repairs to the injured states in the form of restitution, compensation and satisfaction”. Similarly, A position perhaps opening the way. Meanwhile, in the long term, to the compensation of states victims of the climate inaction of other states.

Obligations

In the US last week. Therefore, the 10 years lost 3pb with the release of pressures on Jerome Powell and a PMI Manufacturing in contraction, while unemployment registrations were lower than expected. Moreover, contrasting indicators united states-monday report In Europe. the OAT 10 years ended the unchanged week while the Bund took 3pb, while the ECB decided to leave its unchanged key rate pending more clarity as to American customs duties. This week will be responsible, with the Jolts, the ADP, the PCE, the FOMC, and the ISM manufacturer.

Feeling of traders

Bourse

The markets opened with fanfare thanks to the deal signed between the EU and the USA. The week will be loaded at all levels. macro side with the FOMC meeting (no expected change), the Core PCE and the employment statistics in the US, in the euro zone, we will have the ICC and the GDP. There will also be plethora of quarterly publications: UBS, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Hermès among others.

Devises

Following the announcement of the agreement between the EU. the US (15%prices), the single currency treated in Asia around €/$ 1.1770 before falling at contrasting indicators united states-monday report the opening this morning at €/1.1718. The $ consolidates against other currencies: $/CHF 0.7959, $/JPY 147.80. Bover will focus this week on J. Powell’s speech and especially on US employment figures at the end of the week. We anticipate the following forks: €/$ 1.1568-1,1829, £/$ 1.3365-1.3589, $/CHF 0.79-0.8064, €/CHF 0.9221 -0.9350, XAU/USD 3345-3451.

Markets

Unsurprisingly, the ECB has kept its guiding rates unchanged, but the message is less accommodating. The customs duties agreement between the US. the EU found this weekend, after that with Japan, although asymmetrical, removes uncertainty and maintains positive feeling. Actions are growing (US: +1.4%, Europe: +0.5%and emerging: +0.7%) and sovereign rates at 10 years are rather stable. Dollar depreciation (dollar index: -0.9%) does not prevent gold decline (-0.6%). To be continued this week: House prices (FHFA. S&P Corelogic), household confidence, 1st GDP estimate of T2, Fed meeting, PCE inflation, employment report and manufacturer in the United contrasting indicators united states-monday report States; 1st T2 GDP estimate, CE confidence indices (economy, industry and services) and consumer price index in the euro zone; PMI Manufacturer and services in China.

Swiss market

To be continued this week shortened by the national holiday: T2 real estate price index (OFS). July cyclical barometer (KOF), CA of the retail trade June (OFS) and CA of the May (OFS) services.

The following companies will publish results: Six. Forbo, Sika, Lem, Sig Group, Logitech, Bucher, UBS, Autoeum, Idorsia, Inficon, Avolta, Comet, Holcim, Interroll, Kardex, Clariant, Medacta, Swiss, BNS and AMS Osram.

Actions

ALPHABET (Core Holding) has published solid quarterly results. with an increase up of almost 20%, carried by the growth of Search and Cloud. The integration of the AI stimulates the commitment (+10% of research volume) but to note that the AI Overviews greatly reduce clicks to third -party sites. posing a challenge to the historic advertising model. contrasting indicators united states-monday report CAPEX of the 2025 fiscal year are also noted at $ 85 billion in order to meet infrastructure needs.

German stock exchange (Core Holding) published solid results on Friday and the prospects remain encouraging. The weakness of the IMS segment. largely linked to unfavorable exchange effects, does not justify the underperformance of the title (-11%) over the last month. Take advantage of this weakness to strengthen.

Beyond alphabet. MICROSOFT (Core Holding), META (HR) and AMAZON (HR) should confirm this week an investment trajectory just as ambitious to support AI: rise in power of data centers and securing electricity. The market will focus on the CAPEX 2025-2026 forks, the GPU/ASIC supply and long-term electricity commitments.

Nestlé (Core Holding) remains focused on the gradual recovery of volumes, supported by innovation, marketing and an improvement price elasticity. The “Fuel for Growth” plan makes it possible to finance these efforts while stabilizing the margins. contrasting indicators united states-monday report Despite an online publication, the market sanctioned the absence of a positive surprise. A clearer inflection is expected in 2026 on volumes.

Graphic of the day

Performances