Raiffeisen revives its growth forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. The bank explains this economic slowdown by the fact that no commercial agreement on customs prices with the USA is expected in the near future.
In a study published on Friday, Raiffeisen economists predict GDP growth of 0.9%, adjusted to sporting events. Previously, an increase of 1.1% was expected. GDP growth forecasts for 2026 remain 1.0%.
Experts from the banking cooperative believe that with the announcement of American customs duties by 39%, “Switzerland must in any case prepare for lower GDP growth, especially since it undergoes a painful competitive disadvantage compared to other countries”.
If American customs duties on imports of pharmaceutical products are also imposed, Switzerland may find itself in difficulty, precisely in the sector which has always served as an anchoring point for stability in times of economic difficulties, they write.
Drop in exports expected
Exports to the United States recorded a significant increase in the first half. However, with a customs duties of 39%, a rapid drop is expected, according to the study. In May and June, around 3 billion Swiss francs of goods were exported from Switzerland to the United States.
Raiffeisen expects significant export fluctuations in certain sectors. In the watchmaking industry, for example, the first customs tariffs in the spring led to a sharp increase in exports in April before relating to the suite. In the food industry, a drop was found in June, especially for coffee exports.
The impact of American customs duties also varies considerably according to the cantons. Those exposed to the United States are particularly affected. These include Nidwald, Neuchâtel, Argovie, Valais, Vaud and Basel-Ville.
Basel-city and Ticino are in the lead in terms of export value. However, Basel-Ville benefits from a particular position because of its pharmaceutical industry, so far largely exempt from customs duties. The situation is similar in Ticino, where gold exports have so far been exempt.
No slowdown in the labor market
Due to the general shortage of labor, no slowdown in the labor market is expected. This should maintain stable domestic demand in the euro zone and Switzerland, which pleads against a sharp drop in inflation, according to Raiffeisen.
In the United States, on the other hand, inflation has been surprisingly moderate in recent months. However, Raiffeisen economists expect companies to impact part of the customs burden on consumers, which will lead to a new significant increase in inflation. The prices of imported products, such as electronics, clothing and household items, have already increased considerably.
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP
