For the first time in almost a century, the number of deaths in France surpasses that of births, reveals INSEE this Wednesday. This tilting, initially planned for 2035, intervened with a decade in advance, posing heavy challenges for the social model.
A first in almost a century in France. The number of deaths over a year is now higher than the birth number announces this Wednesday the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). Out of war times, it had not happened since 1935. This great reversal was expected, but not so fast.
A system that cannot last in the long term
INSEE envisaged it for 2035, the rocking finally intervened with 10 years in advance. What is looming is a society with more centenarians than children under 3 and an existential threat on our social model, recalls Julien Damon, sociologist and author of Battles of the birth rate Au editions de l’Aube.
“If we keep the same rules and aids of our welfare state, which have been designed for a young company with a lot of births, while we are going to a society where people are older and where there are fewer births, the system will not collapse immediately, but it will not be able to last in the long term, that is sure,” he said firmly.
Faced with this, there are not many solutions: immigration or short and medium -term robotization, and in the longer term, the revival of the birth rate is a political choice, with for example the idea of an allowance from the first child, the multiplication of the number of places in crèche, or the facilitation of access to housing.
Emmanuel Macron brought together many specialists at the Elysée last week on this subject, but at this stage, no measure was announced.
