The bill will be very salty, no doubt. It will gradually increase until $ 4,700 per Canadian taxpayer in 10 years, on average.
Let’s see in detail. In 2024, Canada spent $ 41 billion on national defense, according to NATO criteria. This sum is equivalent to 1.37 % of the Canadian gross domestic product (GDP), much lower than the target of 2 % of the GDP required by NATO since 2006.
Mark Carney’s promise to raise military spending this year to reach 2 % of GDP this year will make spending over 62.7 billion, according to what the Ministry of National Defense indicates.
This year, expenses are moving from the equivalent of $ 987 to $ 1509 per Canadian, babies included, a leap of $ 522.
But the 2 % objective seems obsolete since the recent NATO decisions, to which Mark Carney adheres. We must now speak of 3.5 % of GDP for strictly military spending by 2035 and 1.5 % of GDP for those linked to the defense of critical infrastructure and the strengthening of the industrial base, for a total of 5 % of GDP.
According to Trevor falls, professor of economics at the University of Calgary, the target of 3.5 % of GDP will gradually pass military spending to more than $ 160 billion in 20351.
It is the equivalent of $ 132 billion in today’s dollars, or nearly $ 2,900 per capita, which represents a leap of some $ 1900 compared to 20242.
We could do extrapolations and estimate what 5 % of GDP would represent, but let’s stay at 3.5 % of GDP, knowing that a share of the rest is already part of the federal expenses, at least in part.
In short, an additional $ 522 invoice must be provided per capita this year, which will gradually increase to $ 1900 in 2035, in today’s dollars. Note that these are recurrent annual expenses, therefore increases that come back every year.
That said, this estimate is per capita. However, in Canada, only 55 % of the population pays for income taxes and even 40 % pay almost all (97 %) of the total income taxes of individuals, if we rely on tax statistics from the Canada Revenue Agency.
How to pay?
Assuming that the burden of new expenses is entirely supported by these 40 % of Canadian individuals, equally, the latter should expect an average increase in their taxes of $ 1305 this year and about $ 4,700 in 2035, depending on whether it is a question of 2 % of GDP or 3.5 % of GDP.
The tax being progressive, the taxpayers earning less income would pay less than these averages and the most wealthy, more.
The economist Trevor falls took a different approach. According to its calculations, such a level of military spending amounts to passing the TPS from 5 % to 11.5 % over the next decade. Or to substantially increase federal debt to increase it from 42 % of GDP to 50 % of GDP in 2035.
Another possibility is to reduce the expenses of other portfolios of the federal government by 3 % by 2035, expenses which have increased in recent years, inflation and swelling of the federal apparatus included.
In short, these are big Bidous that will not be devoted to the health or education of Canadians.
Starting military spending has become necessary before the threat of Russia, Beijing wills at the Southern China Sea, the War in Israel and the belligerent words of Donald Trump, among others.
The fact remains that these tensions show us how the distance from peace forces us to devote important resources to protect us and prepare to destroy rather than inject funds to improve the fate of humanity.
1. Read the analysis of Professor Trevor falls (in English)
2. To reach these expenses per capita in 2035, we assumed that the Canadian population will grow by 1 % per year within 10 years.
