The trajectory of Hurricane Erin could gradually orient it towards Europe by next week – Image via Windy
The first cyclone of the season on the Atlantic
The first hurricane of the season has been talked about a lot in recent days in the Atlantic. Formed last week off West Africa, it first evolved as a tropical storm between August 12 and 14 before strengthening very quickly, going from a category 1 cyclone to a category 4 cyclone in just 12 hours on August 16.
Hurricane Erin off Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy on August 16 – NOAA
He also reached category 5 in the current weekend off the Bahamas, becoming the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in August since Dean in 2007/ to become a hurricane the next day and then observe a very rapid intensification by approaching the Antilles, reaching category 5 on August 16.
Fortunately, this cyclone has retained a trajectory avoiding inhabited land, circulating northeast of Porto-Rico this weekend and thus avoiding the West Indian arc.
Erin cyclone trajectory since his training last week – National Hurricane Center
This should also maintain a trajectory avoiding the American coast in the coming days, gradually turning northern and then northeast during the week by traveling a few hundred kilometers off the east coast of the United States.
Planned trajectory of the Erin cyclone in the coming days – National Hurricane Center
Does Erin go to Europe?
As often in this kind of situation, the Erin cyclone will be taken up by the depressional traffic on the north of the Atlantic. Thus, it should actually take over the direction of the European continent at the end of the week.
Planned trajectory of the Erin cyclone by the weekend of August 18 to 24 in the north of the Atlantic – Fond De Carte: Windy
Nevertheless, no need to panic, a hurricane will not come to run up on Western Europe and France by the beginning of next week. Indeed, arriving on the cooler waters of the north of the Atlantic, Erin will gradually lose in intensity by the weekend and even lose his tropical characteristics to become a “simple” storm on the Atlantic-North.
Evolution of Hurricane Erin on the Atlantic-North until early next week – Via TropicalTidBits
This phenomenon is perfectly normal, the winds of altitude and the surface temperatures of the Atlantic-North are not favorable to the maintenance of tropical phenomena to Western Europe. The menu of the cyclone trajectories history between 1980 and 2005 on the Atlantic is also talking.
Trajectories of all hurricane between 1980 and 2005 – none of them touched Europe with all its tropical characteristics – WikipediaCOMMONS
However, even if Erin will not touch Europe as an ourgan, it is important to keep an eye on its trajectory between this weekend and the start of next week. Indeed, even if it will have lost its tropical characteristics, this ex-oraragan could remain very active and bring a risk of a notable storm on the west and/or the northwest of the European continent by next week.
Risk of storm in western Europe in conjunction at the former Ouragan Erin for the end of August? – Modèle GFS via WX CHARTS
The trend will nevertheless remain to be specified in the coming days, the trajectory of the system, especially after its extra-tropical transition will indeed evolve, so that it is for the moment it is impossible to specify whether the risk of a storm is important or not on the west of the European continent and France for the end of August.
Author: Tristan Bergen
