Despite an uncertain economic environment, the major action indices are breaking records. If the euphoria is watching, the fundamentals – them – remain solid. And some geographic areas may well create surprise.
Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, July 2025. Data 12 minus awaited.
Solid benefits as an engine
The main global actions clues are flirting with their highest historical levels. The paradox is striking: how can the markets still climb while geopolitical tensions, high interest rates and commercial, or territorial wars, weigh on the economy?
The answer is in one word: the benefits. In the United States, the big names in tech have seen their profits by exploding +500% in five years. But the trend is not limited to “seven magnificent”: the rest of the American market such as international or European actions, also displays increases between +80% and +110%. The beneficiary dynamics are indeed there.
A relative euphoria
Behind the apparent complacency of global clues, notable differences deserve to be underlined. If the dazzling trajectory of the profits of American technological giants is indisputable, it masks a more nuanced reality: the rest of the American market – excluding “seven magnificent” – has experienced solid but much less spectacular profit. Even more surprising, European actions and those of the markets outside the United States have recorded profit growth by action often higher than those of the S&P 500 excluding technological stars. However, despite this robust fundamental performance, their valuations remain significantly lower – of around 25%. This discrepancy underlines an increasing imbalance between fundamentals and valuation, and militates for a reassessment of investment opportunities outside the United States. Far from being an anomaly, this gap may well constitute a strategic opportunity for investors looking for sustainable growth at a reasonable price, especially in a context where budgetary prospects in Europe and Asia are clearing up, while the opposite winds are intensifying in the United States.
A positive surprise potential
The markets anticipate a new splendid season in terms of results in the United States, less elsewhere. But beware of good news reserves! Five years ago already, consensus bet on American domination in terms of beneficiary growth. However, the opposite happened – outside Gafam1.
Today, several indicators suggest that the cards could be rebatted. In Germany, public investment plans, especially around infrastructure, accelerate. In Asia, recovery signals are increasing: attendance at Macao casinos up 20%, bounce from Chinese real estate values … Governments seem to be inclined to revive activity.
Conversely, the United States could experience an empty passage. The effects of protectionist measures are already felt, while the positive repercussions of public spending are not expected before 2026. And with a more vigilant Fed than ever in the face of tensions on the labor market, monetary support will remain limited.
Two allowance levers
In this context, two orientations could take shape for investors. American technological giants have become more attractive again after the euphoria phase around artificial intelligence. They retain robust fundamentals (margins, cash flows, perspectives) which give them both performance potential and resilience during high rates.
A larger place granted to the actions of the rest of the world: we believe that the out of the United States markets remain under-valued, underdeveloped in portfolios and their potential appears underestimated. They benefit from more favorable short -term macroeconomic dynamics. Enough to create good surprises.
Neither optimistic nor pessimists: realists
Investors are often torn between prudence and enthusiasm. But between a starting point and high expectations in the United States today and the signals of international change, lucidity remains the best compass. In a world that fragments, the opportunity may be right where we no longer expect it.
1 Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et Microsoft.
