Dubai instantly evokes extravagance: futuristic towers, artificial islands, and villas where luxury is displayed without restraint. We imagine European expatriates or the Gulf settle there to work, take advantage, or invest. In 2025, this legendary decor, however, cracks: the prestigious villas market experienced a real correction. Price drops where we expected a surge. Many are wondering: is it an accident on a journey or a sustainable reversal? A crisis, a bubble about to burst? Or rather an exceptional opportunity for those who dare to seize the moment? At a time when real estate prospects scan each signal, the professionals interviewed hesitate to talk about panic. But the figures show a disturbing truth, which little had anticipated. Here is what the latest data on the ultra-luxe segment in Dubai reveals.
2. Are the luxury villas in Dubai (really) down?
Between 2021 and 2023, the prices of prestigious villas in Dubai climbed approximately 60 %, carried by a massive influx of international capital, seductive tax packages and a feeling of unstoppable flambé. However, from the second half of 2024, the first slowdown signals appeared: projects put on stand-by, buyers increasingly declining the price down. In 2025, the trend accelerated. According to specialized market projections, Prices could go back up to 15 % by the end of 2026 in the luxury segment. Several reasons explain this reversal: a less accommodating global monetary context, a supply that now exceeds demand, and growing prudence among expatriates. Result: some promoters begin to apply substantial discounts To sell the unsold items before the massive arrival of new housing. For the first time in years, the dynamics seem to be reversed and some informed buyers see it A real discount window.
A massive overproduction: 73,000 dwellings in 2025
The real estate project of the century? Dubai displays dizzying figures: nearly 73,000 residential units delivered in 2025, historic record, With a target of 300,000 additional dwellings by 2028. This prodigious rhythm is explained by a territory strategy: supporting demographic growth, anticipating Expo 2030, and maintaining high margins in a competitive context. But this massive mass of constructions is starting to pose a major problem: the supply far exceeds effective demand in the luxury and ultra-luxe segment. In some projects, the villas remain invented for months. To attract buyers, some promoters break the prices or offer ultra aggressive payment plans, such as purchase discounts or monthly payments of 1 % after a moderate deposit. This movement puts direct pressure on sales and forces actors to optimize their models in order to avoid expensive dormant stocks.
And yet … It is not necessarily a sign of a leak of investors
The context could suggest an investors’ disavowal, but this is not the case. The projects continue to attract, despite the discounts. Ultra-flexible payment plans (for example 20 % at the entrance and then 1 % per month), the absence of capital gain tax, the dirham indexed on the dollar, and a stable residential framework remain powerful assets. Many see 2026–2027 as a prices recovery horizon, especially after the 2030 Expo. For alternative investors in particular French or primary investors, the intermediate luxury segment is now more affordable than in Paris or London. They buy, wait, rent while waiting. And prepare the revaluation window. The bet is calculated, but for the moment, rather common in expatriate French -speaking environments.
A strategy that seduces… especially the French and first-investigating
French expatriates in Dubai are regularly increasing. Many are young, agile, and favor real estate investment from their installation. They choose entry -level villas accessible around € 290,000 In emerging districts, on the outskirts or in less known but developing residential areas. This choice makes it possible to test the market, acquire a first active as a reduced price, while taking advantage of deferred tax exemptions and payment plans. For them, Dubai is no longer just a luxury destination, it is an experimentation field trying to optimize both lifestyle and future yield.
Mirage, intoxication… or real real estate strategy in gold for 2026?
What looks like a bubble today could be a strategic opportunity to seize before it closes. Of course, precautions are essential: check the quality of construction, anticipate the co -ownership charges, ensure the viability of long -term projects, do not choose a badly served or at the end of the pipeline. But for those who invest intelligently, with vision at 3–5 or 10 years, this period represents a unique “pre-expo” window: A structural discount on an asset potentially valid in the medium term.
A two -faces market … but an opportunity to monitor very closely
Dubai seems to change cycle. While prices are blazing elsewhere, this city shows welcome signs of correction. What was inaccessible can become playable again. The luxurious segment is reinvented: technology, taxation, financing plans redraw the situation. Yes, the operation may seem risky in the short term. But for investors who anticipate, who invest early, and who know how to negotiate in this transition phase, the potential is real: a discount good today, but valued tomorrow. The strategy is clear: buy now, wait for expo and rebalance, and harvest the added value between 2026 and 2028.
In short
| Indicator | 2025 figures |
|---|---|
| Number of housing delivered | 73 000 (record 2025) |
| Forecast of Price Deposit | Up to –15 % on luxury at the end of 2026 |
| Villa price “entry -level” | ≈ € 290,000 in emerging districts |
| Type payment plan | 20 % deposit + 1 %/month |
| Strategic deadline | Expo 2030 → Potential Valuation |
Sources
- Fitch Ratings (May 2025) – Market forecasts for Dubai, drops to –15 %
- Cavendish Maxwell / Arabian Business / Cavendish Maxwell Market Report (June – July 2025) – Delivery of 73,000 dwellings in 2025
- Deloitte Middle East (February 2025) – Price and growth data residential sector
- Khaleej Times (July 2025) – Dynamics of demand for luxury and yield units
- Business Insider / Knight Frank (December 2024) – Villa entry -level prices in Dubai
