Economists provide for a slight increase in inflation in June

Economists expect an acceleration of inflation in June. Consequently, the Bank of Canada continuing to analyze data on prices according to customs duties.

Statistics Canada will publish data from the consumer price index (IPC) for June on Tuesday.

The CIBC bank expects this data to indicate an increase in the annual inflation rate of a tenth. Similarly, percentage point to reach 1.8 %.

Katherine Judge. Moreover, main economist at the bank CIBCmentioned during an interview that she expected that the inflation of goods fuel the pressures on prices during the month. Similarly, This increase could be partly linked to the effect of the commercial dispute between Canada. Similarly, the United States, she added.

Rental price reduction

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Conversely, Ms. For example, Judge wishes to relieve rent prices in order to slow down housing inflation. In addition,

The rent index has economists provide slight increase inflation not yet taken into account the rent reductions that we have observed for vacant housing across the country. Similarly, which will partially compensate for the impact of customs duties.

The publication of theIPC From June will be the last overview of inflation by the Bank of Canada before its next decision affecting the key interest rate, scheduled for July 30.

The financial markets are expecting the central bank to maintain the keyword unchanged for the third consecutive time.

LSEG Data & Analytics said that the probability of a quarter of a quarter of a point fell just 13 economists provide slight increase inflation % on Friday afternoon. after Statistics Canada announced the unexpected creation of 83,000 jobs in June.

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The Governor of the Central Bank. Tiff Macklem, said last month that monetary policy economists provide slight increase inflation officials noticed a unusual volatility in inflation figures.

He also indicated that underlying inflation could be stronger That the central bank initially thought it. which could reflect the increase in costs linked to customs duties between Canada and the United States.

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) provides that the annual rate of inflation will be accelerated to reach 1.9 % in June.

Claire Fan. main economist at the RBCexpects underlying inflation to remain tenacious in June, oscillating around the upper limit of the target fork of 1 to 3 % fixed by the central bank.

She indicated that inflation of food prices is an element that should continue to increase the consumer price index. according to the RBC.

While the Bank of Canada. other economic observers examine the data on prices looking for proof of pressures related to commercial conflict with the United States, Ms. Fan does not expect important effects of customs duties for the moment.

Economists provide slight increase inflation

Other sources to take into account

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Inflation data being by nature retrospective, Ms. Fan has stressed that it was based more on the Banque de Canada surveys with companies. consumers, scheduled for next week.

These quarterly surveys give the Central Bank an idea of the way companies manage pricing pressures. the speed with which they could pass the costs on consumers.

The sub-government. Sharon Kozicki, had explained in a speech delivered last month that the Banque du Canada was based more on other data sources, such as restaurant surveys and reservations, to mitigate part of the uncertainty surrounding traditional economic data.

We currently have very little inflation data. but the survey [sur les perspectives des entreprises] has always been a very useful indicator of future expectations.

Ms. Judge said that even if she usually attached more importance to data from theIPCthe Surprisingly Solidly Statistics Canada Employment Report for June should probably force the Central Bank to suspend its activities until September.

Benjamin Reitzes. Managing Director of Canadian Rates and Macroeconomic Stratege of BMOsaid on Friday in a note that he expected that global inflation reaches 2 % in June. He pointed out that the increase in food. transport costs, as well as less optimistic comparisons with last year’s price data, were at the origin of this acceleration.

Noting that the extent of economists provide slight increase inflation inflation has extended into the figures of theIPC From May, Mr. Reitzes suggested that the Bank of Canada would monitor the signs of a reversal of trend last month. in order to restore confidence in a possible price pressure on prices.

After the significant job creation in June. it will take a marked drop in underlying inflation for the [Banque du Canada] envisages, if only to reduce its rates in Julyhe wrote.