The famous butterfly effect. The Islamic Republic of Iran produced 3.5 million barrels of gross produced in May, according to data from the International Energy Agency (AIEA). These statistics place the country in the third position, among the twelve members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC).
Will the current situation in the Middle East and the American attack in Iran, add the fuel budget for summer vacation? This very concrete question may seem far removed from geopolitical issues and human dramas, on the spot, but in fact, in hexagonal service stations, “some drivers anticipate and are already full,” says a manager.
Those who caught up there were not wrong, because the prices are full. This Monday, according to figures updated by the Ministry of Ecological Transition, which correspond to surveys made in France the previous week, namely from June 16 to 22, the liter of diesel was displayed on average in the service stations at 1.64 euros, or 8 cents more than the previous week. As for the liter of Super SP95-E10, it sold 1.70 euros (+ 3 cents).
The multiple crises (covid, customs duties, etc.) wars (Ukraine, Gaza), in recent years, have almost accustomed motorists for this purpose domino. The oil price climbs and, by turn, those of petrol and diesel prices follow.
The price of a barrel of Brent this Monday was around 77 dollars, when, at the end of May, it was around 60 dollars. “We expected a significant increase,” says Olivier Gantois, the president of the French Union of Energies and Mobility Petroleum Industries. At this price level, the increase in a barrel is completely reflected in the pump. »»
The prices should be maintained
An obvious effect of tensions in the Middle East, but not only. A consequence, too, of the “Driving Season” in the United States, the season of motorized escapades across the Atlantic, which runs from the Memorial Day (fine May) have Labor Day (early September). The United States still counting for around 10 % of world petrol consumption, the extent of travel in the country is significant. It produces an effect on demand – petrol is more requested, therefore rarer – and mechanically on the price of a barrel, which climbs.
“In the current context, there is no reason for the prices to reflect on the pump,” said Olivier Gantois, but without being sound the alarm. “Nor is there any reason why they are still increasing considerably,” he continues. First, because the driving season is a phenomenon circumscribed in time. Then, because the oil markets do not believe in a major impact of the war in the Middle East. »»
Since the night of June 12 to 13 and the start of the Israeli operation “rising lion”, the rise in the barrel of Brent remains generally contained between 70 and 80 dollars. Far from the 100 dollars exceeded in 2022, during the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army.
“Iran does not wish that this conflict degenerates into petroleum shock, estimates Olivier Gantois, despite the resolution of the Iranian Parliament on the closure of the Strait of Ormuz …” The Strait of Ormuz, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, sees, every day, around twenty million barrels of oil or refined, or 20 % of the world supply.
The Iranian Parliament has indeed claimed its closure, but it is from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran that it is up to this decision. The country “more than ever needs money linked to its black gold exports,” said the UFIP. The butterfly effect, again. Thousands of kilometers, the increase in prices in the hexagonal service stations should be contained for this reason.
