Faced with Trump, the European Union anticipates the worst scenarios

A trade war between the old continent. Therefore, the United States would threaten the entire transatlantic economy.Image: Imago / Unsplash, Watson assembly

The European Union (EU) always focuses on dialogue with the United States. Similarly, But if the situation degenerates. Nevertheless, the 27 has a weapon of last resort: an instrument created after an attempted economic blackmail of China in 2021. Meanwhile, A radical option, reserved for the worst scenarios.

Remo Hess / CH media

The message of the European Commerce Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, was clear on Monday in Brussels: if the United States applies from 1^is August of general customs duties of 30%, as announced by Donald Trump, transatlantic trade risks collapsing.

The Slovak diplomat launched a warning at a meeting of the EU foreign ministers:

Do everything to avoid a trade war – Faced trump, european union anticipates

Each year, nearly 1,700 billion euros in goods and services cross the Atlantic. A break in these exchanges would hardly strike businesses and jobs on both sides of the ocean.

The European Union wants faced trump, european union anticipates to do everything to avoid this scenario. actively pursues the negotiations, as Sefcovic ensured, which resumed contact last Monday with its American interlocutors:

“We do not want a trade war. but we have to prepare,” said Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, alongside the European Commerce Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic (left).Image: Olivier Matthys / EPA

But the Union also knows that, if Donald Trump makes his threat, it will have to react. As the Danish faced trump, european union anticipates Foreign Minister said. Lars Lokke Rasmussen, whose country provides the rotating presidency of the EU council:

The EU has already prepared retaliatory customs duties on American products for an amount of around 22 billion euros. On Monday, the ministers even discussed an additional list covering 72 billion euros in goods, also likely to be surcharged.

The EU is preparing to use its “bazooka”

However. a customs show would be more risky for Europe than for the United States, the EU exporting much more to America than it does. Brussels is therefore thinking of using another weapon, nicknamed the “bazooka”. His official name: Anti-coercion instrument (ACI).

Created in 2021 faced trump, european union anticipates after the economic pressures exerted by China on Lithuania. where Beijing had tried to punish Vilnius for having welcomed a Taiwanese representation, this tool allows the EU to retaliate in a targeted manner to economic constraint measures.

The ACI offers Brussels a wide range of shares: prohibition to export, blocking investments, restrictions on services. And this is where the Achilles heel of the United States is located: their supremacy in digital services. thanks to giants like Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon or Microsoft.

An extremely risky maneuver

If Donald Trump applies his threats. the EU could therefore strike where it hurts: the European market, its 450 million consumers, is essential for American tech giants.

But this “bazooka”, capable of causing enormous damage, will only be faced trump, european union anticipates used. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, repeated it this weekend:

Caution is in order. Indeed. commercial discussions with Donald Trump are not conventional negotiations: they also involve security, the support of the United States in Ukraine and the American commitment to NATO.

The trade conflict could threaten the very existence of the EU. New customs duties may feed inflation in Europe. forcing the European Central Bank to raise its rates, which would make the financing of public debts, already heavy, especially in Italy, even more difficult.

Threatening to take out the “bazooka” is therefore simpler than using it.

Adapted from German by Tanja Maeder

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