The announcement of heavy customs taxes on Swiss products Place Berne in a dead end. Switzerland, a small country with limited economic means, simply “doesn’t have much to offer” to the world’s leading power, said political scientist Cédric Dupont. And the unpredictability of Donald Trump only aggravates the situation.
With its 9 million inhabitants, Switzerland finds itself far in the priorities of the American administration. Donald Trump has already concluded or started commercial negotiations with size partners: Japan, South Korea, the European Union or the United Kingdom.
>> Read also: The EU and the United States conclude an agreement which fixes at 15% customs taxes on European products
In this context, “little Switzerland has little to put on the table to satisfy the ogre”, image Cédric Dupont, professor of international relations and political science at IHEID, Monday in the morning.
The Federal Council has tried an express offensive in Washington. But on the commercial level, Switzerland has little playing cards. “Our industrial customs duties are already zero,” recalls Cédric Dupont. “And on the agricultural side, it is politically untouchable”.
>> Read also: Guy Parmelin: “In international politics, there are never friends, there are interests”
Unpredictability of Donald Trump
So what alternatives? “Buy liquid gas, talk about gold Or strategic stocks … These are smoking attempts that will not work in front of a Trump administration. Nor can we promise 200 billion investments over four years, while we are going around 20 today. It is neither feasible nor desirable, especially with such an unpredictable partner “.
You have to start thinking about a diversification, so as not to remain as dependent on a country and a sector
And it is precisely this unpredictability that makes the situation even more uncertain, underlines Cédric Dupont. “With him, nothing is ever sure or certain,” he recalls. Trump acts “affect”, as in poker. “For him, we are cheaters, like all those who have a trade surplus.”
In this context, even if an agreement is found in the coming days, nothing guarantees its sustainability. “This deal can last a week, a month, six months … We have returned to a situation where there are no more certainties”.
Diversify to survive
According to him, the only short -term option is wait -and -see. “Take out the umbrella while waiting for the storm to pass, accept a little partial unemployment, and hope that our pharmaceutical industries make a gesture on the prices of drugs to appease the situation. But above all, we must start to think about a diversification, not to remain as dependent on a country – and a sector – which concentrates more than half of our American exports”.
In the short term, Swiss companies have no real alternative. Indeed, the American market represents 17% of their exports – far ahead of China (7%). And even if alternatives exist, the transition will not be done overnight.
“It is absolutely necessary to negotiate or try to find other outlets with China or with Europe. But the problem is that we are not alone, there is also competition in these countries,” said John Plassard, associate and responsible for the investment strategy of the Geneva bank Cité Gestion, at the microphone of RTS.
>> Listen to John Plassard’s interview in the morning:
Glimmer of hope?
In Bern, the Federal Council still hopes to tear off a last -minute compromise. Negotiations are underway, but the context is far from favorable.
“Yes, there will be discussions,” says John Plassard. “But to calm Trump, it will be necessary to make promises, especially investment in the United States. And perhaps aligning yourself on the European Union. But it will have a cost, for companies, for the consumer and for the Swiss employee”.
>> Reread: After 39%customs duties, what should Switzerland do?
Interview by Aleksandra Planinic/HKR
