In June, Statistics Canada reported a decrease in the total area of Canola planted this year. According to its bulletin, 8.7 million hectares, or 21.5 million acres, were sown, which represents a drop of 2.5 % compared to last year.
In June 2025, the canola area sown in the meadows slightly decreased compared to the previous year.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Maggie Wilcox
However, for Jerry Klassen, a Manitoban farmer and market analyst at Resilient Capital, this drop remains marginal and must not be interpreted as a sign of major concerns.
According to him, taking into account the margin of error, the area planted in canola remains practically identical to that of last year.
At the beginning of spring, when it was a question of American customs duties on the Canola and the CANOLA Canadian CANOLA, as well as fears concerning China, some thought that we could attend a decrease of 10 to 15, even 20 %, of the areas devoted to the Canola.
Jerry Klassen explains that Canadian canola producers have been used to disruption of international trade for decades.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Maggie Wilcox
After Donald Trump’s customs duties on April 2, 2025, which largely spared the Canola, Jerry Klassen said that the producers have sigh of relief.
The Canola price then started to climb, but not before many farmers have already turned to other crops, such as soybeans.
This change was particularly marked in Manitoba, where the sowing season begins earlier and where the choices of seeds were already made long before April, explains Jerry Klassen.
Better armed producers in the face of market uncertainties
Despite a new wave of American prices, the expert in agricultural exchanges Jerry Klassen, himself a producer of Canola in the southwest of Manitoba, remains optimistic about the price of his harvests.
Like many other producers, it has already signed term contracts, which set the sale price of its canola in advance, thus protecting it in part against new market disturbances.
I think I have an almost guaranteed price for my canola. This is why I am confident in my harvests
he says.
Jerry Klassen also points out that Canadian producers have certain advantages compared to their international competitors.
Many Canadian farmers have warehouses directly on their farms. This allows them to store all of their harvest and to avoid selling in the event of a sudden fall in prices, as could have happened with the uncertainties linked to the customs tariffs of Donald Trump.
Finally, several support, investment and insurance funds in the event of harvest loss, jointly funded by federal and provincial governments, offer additional security to Canadian farmers.
In the meadows, the canola season is booming, despite concerns related to international trade, and experts claim that the importance of this crucial export will not decrease in the years to come.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Maggie Wilcox
Between capricious weather and production costs: prudent, but confident producers
For farmers in the meadows, other uncertainties persist, starting with the most classic: Lady Nature.
It is always nature that decides at the end of the year. We can have all the best plans in the world, but we must often change them, because it all depends on the climate
explains Brunel Sabourin, agronomist in the Red River Valley, in Manitoba.
According to him, producers in the region show cautious optimism, aware that weather conditions remain the decisive factor, whatever the economic forecasts.
Brunel Sabourin has more than 25 years of experience in agronomy in the Red River Valley region, in southern Manitoba.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Maggie Wilcox
We are well off, but I would say that we are on the dry side this year. We still expect a fairly good harvest, if the rains continue
observes Brunel Sabourin.
The agronomist underlines that the culture of canola, an expensive process, remains strongly influenced by the economic situation (new window).
In particular, the price of fertilizers, up constantly for several years, concerns many producers of the Red River Valley. Result: some farmers prefer to turn to less demanding crops, such as soybeans.
However, Brunel Sabourin remains cautious: according to him, this drop in the culture of canola observed locally does not necessarily constitute a lasting trend.
I think it is rather something punctual, linked to this year. It is simply a response to market conditions. This year, it’s because of high prices, diseases, and sometimes it is simply a question of crop rotation. It changes every year.
Jerry Klassen is of the same opinion. According to him, the canola market does not shrink. He recalls that this culture plays a strategic role in food security, both on a North American and global scale.
According to him, the prices can vary prices and push producers and governments to seek new outlets, but the demand for the Canola will last.
The United States is currently the largest market. It’s practical, of course, but there are other markets for canola oil.
