In 2025, a natural balance of negative population “was of the order of the possible”, estimated the National Institute of Statistics with AFP, while specifying that it did not make “precise forecasts”.
Over 12 slippery months, the natural balance has already become negative at the end of May, a first since the end of the Second World War, as revealed by the economist of Ofce François Geerolf, taken up by the press. France has recorded some 651,000 deaths against some 650,000 births.
“This is a first,” said AFP Chloé Tavan, head of the INSEE investigations and demographic studies division.
This phenomenon was expected of demographers but “it occurs earlier than expected,” she added.
The rocking was to occur in 2035, the INSEE estimated in late 2021 in a study.
Main variant compared to the early scenario: the number of births is lower.
Between January and May, they fell 3.7% compared to the same period last year. A trend that has already been observed for several years.
It is mainly explained by the drop in fertility, that of the number of children per woman, linked to various factors (difficulties in accessing stable employment, change of aspirations, concern about the future of the planet, etc.).
In parallel, the number of deaths increased by 3.5% over the first five months of the year. This phenomenon, expected of demographers, occurs due to the arrival at age of high mortality from numerous generations of baby boom.
The decline of the birth rate raises concerns about the financing of the French social protection system, based mainly on the contributions of assets.
“This demographic upheaval is major and it is our duty to preserve our social model,” commented Thursday on X the Minister of Solidarity Catherine Vautrin.
The government says it wants to support the birth rate, in particular by fighting infertility and modernizing parental leave. The government is working in particular on a new “birth leave”, which could be taken by the mother and then the baby’s father, with greater financial support than the current parental leave, compensated 456 euros per month.
