Here is where Putin’s war in Ukraine is

In the shadow of events in the Middle East, Russia tirelessly continued its war against Ukraine on many fronts. While the summer offensive is in full swing, the time is for an first intermediate assessment.

Denis trubetskoy, kiev / ch media

The Russian army founded great hopes on its summer military campaign in Ukraine, largely because Western military aid, especially from the United States, has experienced serious slowdown.

It is not strictly speaking a summer offensive, because the Russian forces have been carrying out offensive operations almost uninterrupted since October 2023, with only brief lulls. Moscow nevertheless hoped to take advantage of the context – marked by recent attempts at diplomatic mediation – to garner significant territorial gains. But so far, these advances are long overdue, as shown in the following overview.

Russian advancement in Soumy

What is particularly worried about kyiv is the recent extension of fighting to the Soumy region, in northern Ukraine – the clashes had never been so close to the Dnipro Oblast, bordering Donbass in war for eleven years.

Image: watson

According to Commander -in -Chief Oleksandre Syrsky, the Russian advance in the Soumy region was stopped this week. The experiences of the months of May and June show, according to him, that Russian attacks, just like last year, fail to produce significant results.

In 2024, Russia had already attempted similar offensives in the neighboring region of Kharkiv – without lasting success, despite the initial difficulties encountered by Ukraine. Russian military bloggers confirm a clear slowdown in attacks in the Soumy region, even if it remains uncertain that the advance has been completely stopped. For the time being, Ukraine has managed to avoid the worst.

Image: watson

But the concern aroused by the insufficiency of Ukrainian fortifications in the soumy border region has caused critical and indignation on social networks. Nevertheless, as specified by the Ukrainian military reporter Bohdan Myroshnykov:

However, he wanted to reassure: the situation is no longer critical and would now be controlled.

Advanced to Dnipro and Zaporijia

In the direction of the Dnipro region, Russia recently managed to seize several localities. In three points, the Russian army is now in the immediate vicinity of the administrative border of this area, highly strategic for Ukraine – and a fourth breakthrough could be done shortly.

A Russian progression to Dnipro or Zaporijia would be of major strategic importance: these two cities play a key role in the organization of Ukrainian military operations and are among the most important urban centers in the country. Nothing indicates, however, at this stage, that Russia is considering a direct offensive against these metropolises.

Image: watson

Russia is currently seeking above all to progress in the north of the Donetsk region and to reach, by the Southeast, the city of Pokrovsk, of strategic logistical importance and fiercely disputed for several months. So far, no decisive breakthrough has been recorded.

Image: watson

Intensification of air strikes in cities

In addition to its terrestrial offensives, Russia tirelessly intensifies its air war. During the night of Thursday to Friday, nearly 400 projectiles – including more than 360 drones – were launched against Ukrainian territory. kyiv was thus targeted for the second time in a week by massive air attacks, after a hundred drones have already targeted the capital on the night of Monday.

Other large cities far from the front have also been the target of similar attacks. This evolution weighs heavily on civilians at the back of the front and still accentuates the effects of conflict in regions hitherto relatively spared.

The Russians try a diversion

Despite a temporary decline in American support, the military situation on the ground has hardly evolved in favor of Russia. Admittedly, the Ukrainian anti -aircraft defense, already under high pressure, shows signs of saturation in the face of the intensification of attacks. But according to observers, the offensive launched in the Soumy region is more of a tactical diversion maneuver: Moscow’s true priority remains the Donetsk region, of major strategic importance for its military objectives.

The Russian advances in the direction of Dnipro are also perceived less as an attempt at massive breakthrough than as a tactical maneuver intended to consolidate the presence in the north of the Donetsk region. Moscow’s objectives remain unchanged: take control of the strategic agglomeration formed by Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

President Zelensky near Pokrovsk, this spring.Keystone

In theory, Russia still has time – until the end of September – to achieve this. But so far, nothing indicates a clear desire to accelerate operations on these fronts.

Significant losses on the Russian side

Even in the hypothesis-today improbable-of a cease-fire, which Moscow continues to categorically reject, territorial gains are not the only determining elements: Russian losses are just as much. In the key region of Pokrovsk, Military experts now compare the intensity of fighting to those of Bakhmout In early 2023, when the Wagner group had certainly won over the city, but at the cost of losses so high that it came out almost neutralized.

The murderous battle of Bakhmout would also have had repercussions on the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive during the summer of the same year. Since then, the use of drones has still been clearly intensified, further complicating any offensive campaign – in particular for a Ukrainian army faced with a lack of staff. A final assessment of the summer campaign led by Russia can only be drawn at the beginning of autumn.

Translated and adapted by Noëline Flippe

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