Despite all the distractions, despite the denigration, the environment remains the biggest problem of our time. The wars will pass, like governments, but the climate problem will remain, with its heavy consequences.
On this subject, the question that haunts most economists is this: how to decarbonize our economy without becoming an opening?
Because you have to be lucid: the essential decarbonation can be a vector of business and wealth opportunities, but it is also a very important source of costs for our companies. And who says additional costs says loss of competitiveness and impoverishment.
A excavated report from the Institut du Québec (IDQ) is trying to answer this question, offering a strategy to achieve it1.
Two major observations oversee the analysis. On the one hand, Quebec’s economy is growing, but not quickly enough to catch up with our competitors. On the other hand, the carbon intensity of our economy decreases, but not enough to reach our 2030 targets.
To reconcile the two objectives, the authors Alain Dubuc, Emna Braham and Simon Savard analyze each of the 11 among the most polluting industries in Quebec according to their carbon intensity and what it costs them to decarbonize.
This decarbonation is essential, knowing that climate change leads to major economic and social damage, which will increase if nothing is done.
The three economists argue that to reduce our GHGs by 37.5 % by 2030, we must both target the most emitting industries, but also those that cost the cheapest to decarbon.
Examples? The manufacturing of paper is relatively very polluting (2434 tonnes of GHG per million dollars of GDP), but the cost of decarbonation is very small ($ 4 per tonne of GHG).
Conversely, the construction industry is among the least emitting GHGs in proportion to its size (55 tonnes of GHG per million dollars of GDP), but it is at the same time the one where it costs the most to decarbonate ($ 311 per tonne of GHG).
The 11 industries analyzed represent 76 % of the GHGs in Quebec and 33 % of Quebec GDP. Among them, two have very good results, wholesale and the manufacture of wooden products.
In the first case, GHG emissions have been down 20 % since 2009, although industry GDP increased by 41 %. This industry is therefore on the right way to wait, or even exceed the target of reduction of 37.5 % of GHGs in 2030 (compared to 1990). Good performance is explained by a lower use of energy for the same production.
In the case of wooden products, emissions are down 21 % while industry GDP has climbed 22 %. Again, the energy explains the gains. Despite everything, “the performance seems more mixed in terms of emission coefficient. It would therefore be advisable to assess the gains achievable to replace fossil fuels with more renewable energy, ”according to the study.
Three sectors could be decarbonized at reasonable costs, Emna Braham explains to me, the agricultural, metallurgical and paper manufacturing sectors.
In the agricultural sector, GHG emissions increased by 6 % between 2009 and 2021 while GDP climbed by 28 %. To reach the target of 2030, it will be necessary to do much more.
The decarbonation of the sector requires better soil management and farms, in addition to the use of renewable fuels. There is also a question of GHG capturing by the soils according to the seeds planted.
For its part, the industry of the first metal transformation increased its GHGs by 7 % between 2009 and 2021, a little less than its GDP (12 %). This good step is far from sufficient, however, because at the rate of things, the gap with the target in 2030 will be 73 %.
According to Mme Braham, the cost of decarbonation is quite low in this sector, depending on what scientific literature indicates, by excluding the aluminum sub-sector.
For this aluminum sector, very important in Quebec and very polluting, decarbonation is expensive, because it is necessary to change the processes to achieve it, and not only to improve energy efficiency. Same kind of problem for the cement industry.
Photo Hugo-Sébastien Aubert, the press archives
The paper manufacturing subsector is one of the industries that display the highest carbon intensity in Quebec.
The case of the paper industry is special. GHG emissions-very important-fell 9 % between 2009 and 2021, but GDP even more (-23 %), in the context of the crisis in industry.
In short, Quebec must bet on the most polluting industries where the cost of decarbonation is the lowest. “Without having less appetite for decarbonation, you have to make meticulous and judicious choices in the context of changes to American policies,” says Emna Braham.
It is not easy to decarbonize without becoming a point, in short. To nourish this principle, IDQ researchers would like to have more environmental data for the subsectors of the economy, data that would be comparable to the usual economic parameters.
For example, they have little or no data for other industries that cover 66 % of the economy and 24 % of GHGs. And the large manufacturing sector would be better to be better ventilated.
Consult the Quebec Institute’s report on decarbonation
