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The recent INSEE forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions in France for 2025 reveal a worrying table. While the country strives to respect its climate commitments, the drop in emissions seems insufficient. Indeed, INSEE anticipates a decrease of approximately 1 %, far from the necessary -5 % per year. This low reduction is attributed not to a real decarbonation of the economy, but rather to an industrial slowdown. Let us analyze in detail the various factors influencing this situation.
A worrying industrial slowdown
According to INSEE, the projection of a 1 % drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 is mainly explained by a decline in industrial production. Enero-intensive industriessuch as chemistry, metallurgy and cement manufacturing, undergo an unfavorable situation. These sectors, large energy consumers, see their activity impacted by high energy prices. Indeed, the business climate in these branches remains very degraded, directly affecting their production capacities. INSEE underlines that this trend is reinforced by the European energy context, marked by a relative cost of unfavorable energy. This situation highlights the dependence of French industry towards sources of energy still non -decarbonized, thus slowing down the necessary ecological transition.
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Stability of the energy sector
The energy sector, on the other hand, is experiencing transformations. Electricity production from fossil sources has decreased considerably in recent years, with a 40 % drop in 2023, followed by a new reduction of 46 % in 2024. However, this trend should not continue in 2025because fossil electricity production should stabilize at a historically low level. The revival nuclear reactors and the expansion of renewable energies have contributed to this evolution. Nevertheless, this stabilization could limit the capacity of the energy sector to continue to reduce its emissions. This situation highlights the importance of increasing decarbonization efforts in other sectors to compensate and continue the overall reduction in emissions.
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Transport: between stagnation and opportunities
Transport sector emissions show signs of stagnation. In 2025, they could mark the step, especially due to the increase in aviation emissions, contrasting with a drop in the other segments, particularly the transport of goods. This dynamic is influenced by a gloomy economic activitydirectly impacting the transport request. For households, fuel consumption could experience a temporary increase, stimulated by a drop in prices at the pump planned in the spring. Despite a general tendency to decoupling for two decades, where emissions decrease at the level of constant economic activity, economic fluctuations continue to affect emissions significantly.
Disparities in emissions estimates
Carbon pollution figures for 2024 highlight disparities between the various estimates. According to INSEE, France has issued around 400 million tonnes of equivalent CO2, a reduction of 0.9 % compared to 2023. This figure differs from the estimate of 366 million tonnes advanced by CITEPA. This divergence comes from the calculation methods used. INSEE includes international programs, especially those of French airlines and maritime companies, while CITEPA focuses solely on territorial emissions. This distinction underlines the importance of taking into account all the emissions to have a more complete vision of the national carbon footprint.
Faced with these observations, it appears that France must redouble their efforts to achieve its climatic objectives. Current reliance on economic factors rather than a real transformation to a decarbonized economy is worrying. How can France readjust its strategies to guarantee an effective and lasting reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions?
The author relied on artificial intelligence to enrich this article.
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