For the American president, there is “one in two chance” to get there: Donald Trump negotiates Sunday in Scotland with the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to snatch a customs agreement.
The hour is running: the 79-year-old Republican, launched in a vast protectionist offensive, gives himself until August 1 before knocking out European products entering 30%customs duties in the United States.
Any agreement between the two leaders must be validated by the member states of the EU.
The diplomats who represent them, traveling to Greenland, must meet there in the morning to be informed by the European executive of the last negotiations, then should again consult on Sunday evening or Monday, in the event of white smoke in Turnberry.
It is in this quiet locality of the west coast of Scotland, where the Trump family has a luxurious golf complex, that the summit meeting will take place – at 4.30 p.m. (3.30 p.m. GMT), according to the White House.
“We are in two chance” to find an agreement, Donald Trump had launched on Friday when he arrived in Scotland, from where he will leave on Tuesday after a half-private stay halfway.
According to the Financial Times, tense discussions took place on Saturday evening on steel, automotive and pharmaceutical products.
– “Very respected” –
Before his meeting with the European leader, Donald Trump once again granted time Sunday morning for a golf game.
The American president assured being “impatient” to speak with Ursula von der Leyen, a “very respected woman”.
This kind tone slice with the invectives whose republican overwhelms the European Union, according to him created in order to “scam” the United States.
According to several European sources, the text under discussion provides for customs from 15% on European exports for the United States, with exemptions on aeronautics or spirits – but not on wine.
Such a result would confirm that transatlantic exchanges have entered a new era, that of uninhibited American protectionism. Until Donald Trump’s return to power, they were marked by a much lower American customs duties, 4.8% on average.
In fact, the effective rate applied by the United States to European goods is therefore already almost 15%, if the surcharge of 10% of the United States government is added and the rate of 4.8% pre-existing.
But an agreement would have the merit, according to analysts, to lift uncertainty, this formidable poison in commercial matters.
– “Bazooka” –
The European Union is currently subject to a tax of 25% on cars, 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as general customs duties of 10%.
If Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump could not get along, Brussels claims to be ready to retaliate by taxing American products and services.
The European executive, under the leadership of certain countries such as France, could also freeze access to European public procurement or block certain investments.
Delive this “bazooka” – called “anticoCition” instrument in Brussels jargon – would lead to Europe and America in an incredible diplomatic -economic -economic escalation.
– Epstein –
Donald Trump, a former real estate developer who wrote a successful book on “the art of the deal”, says he is in a position of force.
But some surveys show that Americans doubt their customs strategy and business conduct in general.
In a recent Gallup opinion survey, its confidence rating fell to 37%, 10 points less than in January.
The New York billionaire, who has always played scandals and criminal proceedings, struggles to get out of the Jeffrey Epstein affair.
He is accused of lacking transparency on the relations he had with this rich financier, who died in prison before a trial for sexual crimes which promised to be resounding.
To report an agreement with the EU, by promising pharaonic benefits on the American economy, and in the wake of those concluded in recent days with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, could be a welcome diversion.
On Monday, it is with China that American negotiators will endeavor, during a meeting in Stockholm, to avoid a resumption of commercial escalation.
Posted on July 27 at 3:31 p.m., AFP
