The growth of the Chinese economy has slowed slightly in the second quarter, according to official data published on Tuesday, but remains in accordance with forecasts, in particular thanks to vigorous exports.
China is confronted with several challenges to achieve its growth target “about 5%” for 2025, complicated by the commercial showdown hired by US President Donald Trump.
The second world economy also faces consumption at half mast, especially due to a long real estate crisis and stagnant prices.
Despite these difficulties, Chinese GDP officially climbed 5.2% in the second quarter of the year, a slowdown of 0.2 points compared to the previous quarter (+5.4%).
This pace complies with the forecasts of economists interviewed by AFP last week – although some analysts call to take these official statistics with tweezers.
“The national economy has resisted pressure and progressed regularly despite the challenges,” said Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Statistics Bureau, praising “more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies”.
Since last year, the Chinese and Chinese Staff has multiplied consumption stimulation measures, like a large program of grants for the replacement of consumer goods.
Key indicator of consumer morale, retail sales in China climbed 4.8% in June, a rate, however lower than forecasts for economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency (+5.3%).
Industrial production increased by 6.8% in June, exceeding anticipation (+5.6%).
But economists anticipate a slowdown in the coming months that exports will no longer be able to compensate.
“Growth is lower than the official figures suggest,” said Zichun Huang of Capital Economics.
“With an expected slowdown in exports and the gradual disappearance of budgetary support, growth should still be flexed in the second half,” added the economist.
Maneuver
Chinese exports reached records last year and at the start of the year, notably stimulated by the fear of worsening the trade conflict with Washington.
In June, exports climbed more than 5.8% over a year, according to Chinese customs data.
But this anticipation effect could fade in the following months, alert analysts.
“The performances having exceeded forecasts in the first and second quarters give the government a room for maneuver to tolerate a possible slowdown in the second half of the half,” nuance Zhiwei Zhang, economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Disputes also persist between Beijing and Washington despite a framework agreement concluded in negotiations in London last month.
kyiv’s allies notably urge China – the key commercial ally of Russia – to use its influence to push the Russian president Vladimir Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine.
The American president again tightened the tone on Monday, warning Russia’s business partners that he would impose “very severe” customs duties that could reach 100% if Moscow did not end his war against Ukraine within 50 days.
“Customs duties should remain high, budgetary maneuver rooms are annoyed and the structural winds persist,” alert Zichun Huang.
“But the political pressure to achieve the annual growth objectives – if only on paper – means that the official GDP figures will remain significantly higher.”
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP / AFP
