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The recent declarations of the Chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA), Rafael Grossi, have aroused strong concerns about the Iranian nuclear program. Despite the recent attacks by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear installations, Grosi warned that Iran could resume the enrichment of uranium within a few months. This announcement has taken many observers short, especially after the IAEA said that the Iranian nuclear program had been delayed for several years following the strikes. What elements allow Grosi to maintain such a position, and what are the implications?
Nuclear installations not completely destroyed
Rafael Grossi stressed that some Critical infrastructure Iranian nuclear program remain intact despite the bombing. He spoke of the possibility that Iran could have moved part of his uranium stock enriched before the attacks. The existence of traces of enriched uranium found on undeclared sites reinforces concerns around the transparency of the Iranian program. Although Iran has not yet been equipped with nuclear weapons, Nor can I certify that their program is completely peaceful.
Grossi warned of the simplifications of the intelligence agencies, which believe that the program has been delayed for a few months or years. He insisted that Iran’s technical capacity remains largely intact. According to him, if Iran wishes, it could quickly relaunch its centrifuges to produce enriched uranium.
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The possibility of a quick recovery
Grosi fears are exacerbated by Iran’s recent decision to suspend its cooperation with the AIEA. This includes the prohibition for the agency to carry out inspections on damaged sites, in particular in Fordow, the main site of enrichment of uranium. IAEA’s ability to verify the current state of Iranian installations is therefore considerably limited.
The climate of mistrust is increasing with the contradictory statements of American officials. While President Donald Trump says the attacks delayed the Iranian nuclear program for several decades, Grosi maintains that Iran could relaunch its activities in a much shorter period.
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Iranian uranium reserves
One of the major concerns mentioned by Grosi concerns the reserves of enriched uranium of Iran. Experts estimate that Iran could have almost 408.6 kg of uranium enriched at 60 %, a level much higher than that required for the production of civil energy, but also below the military level. If this uranium was more enriched, it could be enough for the manufacture of about nine nuclear bombs.
Grossi expressed his uncertainty about the current location of this uranium, stressing that the absence of Iranian cooperation makes the situation all the more disturbing. This uncertainty feeds international tensions and strengthens the need for increased monitoring.
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Geopolitical implications
The current situation raises crucial questions about stability in the Middle East region. The possible resumption of Iranian nuclear activities could cause an escalation of tensions with Israel and the United States, threatening regional peace. Diplomatic efforts to bring Iran back to the negotiation table is more than ever necessary.
The international community must decide how to respond to these developments. A concerted approach may be necessary to dissuade Iran from pursuing potentially military nuclear activities, while avoiding direct confrontation.
The recent statements by Rafael Grossi shed new light on the complexity of the Iranian nuclear program. While tensions continue to rise, the question remains how the international community will react to these developments. What will be the next steps to guarantee security and stability in this already fragile region?
The author relied on artificial intelligence to enrich this article.
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