Iran-Israel conflict
Weakened by the twelve -day war, Iran reorganizes its defense system
Iran must review its security after the war with Israel. A moderate figure of the regime will direct the Supreme National Security Council in place of a revolution goalkeeper.
The Iranian president’s regime, Massoud Pezechkian, had to reorganize his security and create a new national defense council after the war with Israel.
Atta Kenne / AFP
- Iran names Ali Larijani, a moderate figure of the regime, at the head of the Supreme National Security Council.
- The president, Pezechkian, creates a new postconflit national defense council.
- The Israeli Operation Rising Lion has severely affected Iranian strategic infrastructure.
- The chances of a nuclear agreement with the United States amounts to 40% according to the entourage of the Iranian president.
In the uncertainty of a resumption of negotiations with the United States after a twelve-day war that weakened it, Iranian power reorganizes its defense system. After announcing on Sunday the creation of a national defense council, Ali Larijani, a veteran of Iranian policy known for its moderate positions, was appointed Tuesday at the head of the Supreme National Security Council (CSSN).
Under the authority of the supreme guide and main holder of power, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the CSSN decides on the strategic options of the Islamic Republic in terms of security and defense.
In both cases, the President of the Republic, Massoud Pezechkian, a moderate, played an important role. It was he who appointed Ali Larijani at the head of the Supreme National Security Council, and according to state television, he will chair the National Defense Council, made up in particular of commanders of the armed forces and the ministers concerned. Massoud Pezechkian already chairs the CSSN.
Ali Larijani was president of the Iranian Parliament for twelve years, until 2020.
AFP
In the decree of creation of the National Defense Council that Massoud Pezechkian published, he asked Ali Larijani to “supervise and prioritize the risks in matters of national security, particularly threats from new technologies […]». “The Rising Lion operation (the lion that rises), launched on June 13 by Israel, considerably struck the security structures and the nucle-industrial complex of theIranthanks to the action of the secret services of the Hebrew State, “wrote in its latest edition the magazine” Raids “.
Reduce the influence of ultra -presenter
The share taken by Massoud Pezechkian in these announcements makes many observers say that it is also a question of countering his ultra -corer opponents, supporters of firmness in the face of Israeli and American enemies of Iran.
Coming from an influential family, a conservative himself, Ali Larijani has over time close to moderate political forces. This earned him to be, twice, excluded from a presidential election by the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, dominated by the Conservatives.
Ali Larijani was a president of the Parliament between 2008 and 2020, after being the main nuclear negotiator in the face of Westerners between 2005 and 2007, and CSSN secretary in the early 2000s. Since 2020, he was an adviser to the Supreme Guide.
His return to the front of the scene marks a support for the pragmatic figures of the regime – at the top of which President Pezechkian – two months after Israel led hundreds of strikes on military, nuclear sites and killed scientists linked to nuclear program. For their part, while Tehran retaliated with missile and drone shots on Israel and aimed at the most important American base in the Middle East in Qatar, the United States has bombed the underground site of Uranium of Fordo, south of Tehran, and nuclear installations in Ispahan and Natanz in the center of the country.
Since then, the Iranian system, faced with an acute economic crisis aggravated by drought, must deal with many calls for reforms to reduce the influence of ultra -presenter. But faced with Donald Trump and Israel, “Iran is not hands today”, notes an expert, who deciphers the internal issues of the Islamic Republic. “There is a strong desire for President Pezechkian and the least conservative wing to conclude an agreement at all costs with the United States on nuclear, but opposite, the supreme guide and the revolution guards camp on a closed line.”
Donald Trump and Arbitre
A real state in the state, the all-powerful guards of the revolution-whose head was eliminated by the Hebrew state-refuse any new inspection of nuclear sites claimed by the United States and Europeans, who want to extend these inspections to the ballistic missiles, considered as a danger by the Arab neighbors of Iran and Israel, harshly struck at the end of the war by the war by the war more dangerous.
Promoting Ali Larijani, while the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, could be the target of a future Israeli attack, allows pragmatics to prepare the future. According to confidences of this one, the entourage of Massoud Pezechkian evaluates at “40% the chances that Iran gets along with the United States for a new nuclear deal”, while recognizing that “it depends on the will of Donald Trump” to achieve such an agreement.
According to the expert in contact with the Iranian power, “if Trump recognizes a right to enrichment, contained in the non-proliferation treaty, but Iran will not exercise, and drop the ballistic missiles, the Iranians would easily sign against the levy of the sanctions. But if Trump says that the regime, in great difficulty, will fall one day or another and therefore prefers to maintain his conditions on the ballistic file, demanding to inspect the military sites, it will never pass “, even with moderates like MM. Pezechkian and Larijani.
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