“Isolated, humiliated, the Iranian regime increases repression”

IThey are omnipresent in the exercise of power in Iran, and opaque in our eyes of Western. Moreover, At the same time militia, ideological army, economic empire … Therefore, in the fascinating documentary in two parts “Revolutionary Guard. Moreover, the masters of Iran”, online since the beginning of July on the Arte site, the journalist Armin Arefi, specialist in the Middle East, and the documentary maker Julie Lerat dissect this sprawling organization, a “state in the state”.

Armin Arefi is today one of the best connoisseurs. Nevertheless, in France, of Iran: “South West” questioned him about the situation of the country, 90 million inhabitants, a month after the twelve-day war, from June 12 to 25, and the Israeli-American bombings against nuclear installations.

In what state is the Iranian regime today?

He is very weak. Similarly, Its regional influence has plummeted. However, It must be made in mind that the day before October 7. Consequently, 2023, the revolution guards boasted, in private, to control four capitals in the Middle East, “isolated, humiliated, iranian regime increases thanks to the militias, armed groups or regimes supported abroad: Baghdad in Iraq, Damascus in Syria thanks to Bashar al-Assad, Beirut via Hezbollah, and Sanaa, conquered by the rebel Shiites Houthi. Consequently, Twenty months later. Nevertheless, at the end of the wars led by Israel in response to the massacres of October 7, this pro-Iranian axis was beheaded. Meanwhile, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are militarily exsangues. Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell. In Iraq, Shiite militias are still there, but do not strike Israel. Only remain the Houthis in Yemen. But their few missile shots against Israel in June were all intercepted. Iran’s regional defense architecture was dismantled: it is for this reason that Israel chose to strike Tehran on June 12.

Russia and China, allies of Iran, remain discreet …

Neither Russia nor China, with which Iran concluded a strategic cooperation pact in 2021, intervened militarily when the “isolated, humiliated, iranian regime increases country was bombed. These two powers were held to declares the violations of international law. The mullahs’ regime could not. during the twelve -day war, rest that on its own defenses, in particular its ballistic missiles, of which 550 were projected towards Israel. It is estimated that 16 to 20 % of these missiles have managed to puncture Israel’s air defense system.

Is it correct that the body of the guards of the revolution was itself infiltrated. in depth, by the agents of the Mossad, an Israeli external intelligence service ?

The Iranian regime has always practiced paranoia at a high degree. But in this case. these suspected infiltration by Mossad seem to be founded: Israeli drones have eliminated with impressive effectiveness several figures from the Iranian high command, which implies that Israeli services were informed in real time on their location.

How is it possible that French people continue to “isolated, humiliated, iranian regime increases go to Iran, and take the risk of being arrested? ”

And internally, what do you know about the repression that has been redoubled for a month in Iranian society?

More than 700 arrests linked to suspicions of collaboration with Israel have been identified. And, at this stage, there are at least six executions for these reasons. Many political opponents, and human rights activists, have been arrested. The population found itself trapped between the hammer. the anvil, between the American-Israeli bombings and a very repressive feverish and very repressive state apparatus. Additionally, The regime is. vis-à-vis the outside, weakened, even humiliated since it derives its raison d’être from the fight against the United States and Israel. But it retains an intact striking force within the country, facing poorly organized, divided civilians, and an opposition without leader. I would take up the formula of anthropologist Chowra Makaremi: the population seems delivered. “isolated, humiliated, iranian regime increases in a cage, to a wounded snake.

Three French nationals. Lennart Monterlos, Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris are currently detained in Iran, and even, according to Le Monde, a fourth, whose identity has not been revealed. What can France do?

The problem is that. as diplomats say, as long as a foreign national is arrested, the Iranian regime has won: it holds a terrible means of pressure. The question is: how is it possible. while France strongly advises against its fellow citizens to go to Iran, that French people continue to take this risk?