Japan is now entering unknown terrain, with a minority government in the two rooms in Parliament, a unprecedented situation since the Second World War.
The future of the unpopular Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seems compromised after a bitter electoral defeat that made him lose the majority in the Senate, against the backdrop of inflation and push of the far -right party without Eeito.
During the Sunday elections, during which was renewed 125 of the 248 seats of the upper chamber, the liberal-democratic party (PLD, conservative right) of Mr. Ishiba and its ally Komeito (center-right) won only 47 seats in their own, according to the official results reported on Monday by NHK public television and other media.
Although superior to the initial projections of local media, this result remains below the 50 seats necessary for the two parties to keep their majority. They will only have 122 senators, even if the very fragmented opposition does not appear able to form an alternative majority.
What exacerbate speculation about a resignation from Shigeru Ishiba, 68, in office for only ten months.
Asked Sunday evening about his intention to stay in place, the Prime Minister responded to a local media: “That’s it”.
“The deadline for the entry into force of the prices (American customs officials, editor’s note) arrives on August 1. By then we have to do our best, in our soul and conscience, ”he told another media.
We expect that he informs senior PLD officials on Monday of his decision to maintain himself, said the Jiji Press news agency.
Political emptiness
The secretary general and number two of the PLD, Hiroshi Moriyama, for his part estimated that it was necessary to avoid any political emptiness.
“It could be replaced by someone else, but it is not easy to know by whom,” Hidehiro Yamamoto, professor of politics at the University of Tsukuba, told AFP.
The government coalition is already in the minority in the lower chamber of the Parliament, for a debacle in the anticipated legislative elections of the fall-which Mr. Ishiba himself summoned after having taken the head of the PLD in September.
The PLD governs Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955, despite frequent changes of leaders.
Japan is now entering “in unknown terrain, with a government in the minority in the two rooms of the Parliament, an unprecedented situation since the Second World War”, recalls Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University.
The Constitutional Democratic Party (center-left), the main opposition force, has won 22 seats, and the Democratic Party of the People (centrist) 17 seats.
Above all, the anti-immigration populist party Sanseeito, with the slogan “Japan first”, made a strong breakthrough with 14 seats won, while only two in the current assembly.
Dear rice
Due to their absence of a majority at the diet, the PLD and Komeito had to compromise with the opposition to have their texts vote, even though the economic situation darkens.
Inflation remains strong (+3.3% in June excluding fresh products), driven by a vertiginous outbreak of rice prices that have doubled in the space of a year.
“The basic prices are increasing, but I am above all worried that wages do not increase,” sighed Atsushi Matsuura, 54, sighed in a Tokyo polling station.
To alleviate the inflationary impact, Mr. Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended from energy grants, and has committed to pay aid checks to citizens. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.
In addition, Donald Trump’s customs offensive plunged automotive sales to the United States, a sector that represents 8% of jobs in the archipelago.
The threat of generalized surcharge of 25% on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.
While the Japanese negotiator went seven times to the United States, the talks with Washington bother. Before the election, Shigeru Ishiba had displayed a maximalist strategy consisting in claiming the total elimination of customs duties.
The financial markets are concerned, them, budgetary drifts, the massifs of recovery plans and aid from the Ishiba government aggravating already heavy debt. Several Tokyo bond emissions have been shunned in recent months, caught up the Japanese rates.
The push of the Sanseeito, which encroaches on the PLD vote, was also closely monitored.
This training advocates “hardened rules and restrictions” in immigration, castigates “globalism”, denounces “radical” gender policies, and calls for recondizing vaccination and decarbonation strategies.
Under pressure due to positions deemed prorusians, the Sanseeito fiercely denied having everything related to Moscow.
