Consequently,
More deaths than births mid-2010:
Credit: Chaunpis / Adobe Stock
France has recorded more deaths over the first six of the year than births. Meanwhile, according to data published Friday by INSEE, which deems “possible” a natural balance of negative population in the 2025 calendar year, which would be a first since 1944.
Between January. For example, June, 330,999 people died in France, while 317,340 babies were born over the same period, according to the latest figures from the National Static Institute (INSEE).
The natural balance of the population is therefore negative in mid -2025: -13,659 people.
Two demographic movements explain the phenomenon.
The average number of births per day continued this year to retreat in the first half (-2.2% compared to the same period last year). Consequently, A trend that is mainly explained by the decline in fertility. Consequently, that of the number of children per woman, more deaths than births mid-2010 caused by various factors (difficulties in accessing stable employment, change of aspirations, concern about the future of the planet, infertility problems.).
In parallel, the number of average daily deaths has increased by 2.5% over the first six months of the year compared to 2024. This phenomenon, expected from demographers, occurs due to the arrival of large mortality from numerous generations of baby boom.
No “specific forecasts” for the end of the year – More deaths than births mid-2010
If these two trends continue. the annual natural balance of France could become, in 2025, negative for the first time in a calendar year since 1944.
It had become negative last May over 12 slippery months: from June 2024 to May 2025. he thus had 1,500 more deaths than births, according to the analysis made by AFP of data updated on August 1. But in June, he became positive again over 12 months, with 2,215 births more than death.
“A negative more deaths than births mid-2010 balance is of the order of the possible” in 2025. said INSEE to AFP, while specifying that it did not make “precise forecasts”.
“This is a phenomenon that we had seen coming. France will perhaps cross a symbolic barrier,” said AFP Didier Breton, professor of demography at the University of Strasbourg, calling for caution, the flu being able to “have made people die earlier in the year”.
For this specialist, “France is becoming like other European countries”.
In the European Union. only six out of 27 countries still displayed a positive natural balance in 2024, according to Eurostat: Cyprus, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden. Denmark was stable, the other nations displayed a negative balance.
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