Short -term Swiss state obligations offer no real return. Only maturity beyond three years are starting to offer positive rates.
In June, the Swiss National Bank (BNS) lowered its key rate to 0%. The inflation expected for 2025 is only 0.2%, a sign of a structurally disinflationist environment. A negative rate of -0.25% in September 2025 is expected by the investor. In fact, Switzerland has a rare dynamic: over the past 30 years, real wages have increased by 13.4%, but labor productivity per person jumped by 25.6%. This sustained progression of productivity, combined with the monetary discipline of the SNB and the force of the Swiss franc, ensures a remarkable price stability.
The Swiss Average Overnight Rate (Saron) is now evolving at -0.05%. The very short -term investments therefore display negative yields. This situation reflects both the weakness of inflation and the extreme research of investor security. In this context, a lasting return to a negative rate policy is not to be excluded. However, this perspective arouses reservations. Negative rates penalize savings, amplify inequalities via excessive valuation of assets, and harm credit profitability. They can even slow down consumption, households save more for fear for their provident objectives. BNS will therefore have to calibrate with caution.
In a universe where the risk -free rate is negative, investors must reconsider their allowance. Short -term Swiss state obligations offer no real return. Only maturity beyond three years are starting to offer positive rates. In the bond part, it will therefore be necessary to (i) to increase the duration, as well as to increase exposure (i) to the PFANDBRIES, (ii) to corporate credits, and (iii) to foreign obligations by covering the exchange risk. Within a multi-active portfolio, increased risk could be justified via (i) the Swiss real estate market, (ii) Swiss shares. Between 2014 and 2022, Swiss shares (SMI TR) and listed real estate funds (Swiit) have indeed outperformed due to increased risk taking in the part of investors.
