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The impact of geopolitical tensions on the energy market is palpable, especially with the recent increase in oil prices. In a short time, the cost of the barrel jumped $ 15, reaching a price close to $ 80. This fluctuation raises many questions regarding the repercussions on consumers, especially in terms of the cost of domestic energy. While the euro has strengthened compared to the previous year, this made it possible to mitigate the impact of the increase in Europe somewhat. However, a major crisis situation, such as a blockade from the Strait of Ormuz, could seriously upset this fragile balance.
The consequences for the price of gasoline and diesel
Despite the recent increase in the price of oil, the appreciation of the euro made it possible to limit the impact on the price of petrol and diesel in Europe. However, consumers must prepare for a moderate increase in pump prices. The price of fuel should increase in the coming daysbut this increase should not be catastrophic. Indeed, according to Philippe Ledent, an economist at ING, the recent climb of $ 15 is not a major shock. It is essential to put this increase into perspective in the light of historic market fluctuations.
Another factor to consider is the potential blocking of the Strait of Ormuz by Iran. This sea route is crucial because it sees around a fifth of world oil production. Such an event could increase prices exponentially. However, for the moment, the markets do not seem to anticipate such a scenario, which maintains the relatively stable prices.
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The price of fuel oil in full effervescence
Recent tensions have also increased the price of fuel oil. Since the start of strikes on Iran, the average cost of an order of 1,000 liters has increased by 170 euros. Olivier Steeno, a mazout delivery man, noted a significant increase in demand, with delivery times that have been considerably extended. The prices fluctuate so much that it now charges at the price of the delivery dayrather than that of the day of the order.
This situation is particularly unusual for a period usually hollow like June. Market fluctuations make forecasting future costs particularly complex. Consumers are therefore encouraged to closely monitor market trends to avoid unpleasant surprises on their heating bills.
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Expected increase in gas and electricity bills
Recent energy market fluctuations have also affected gas and electricity prices. After a lull between February and June, gas prices suddenly increased by 20%, going from 34 euros/MWh to 41 euros/MWh. This increase is widely attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, explains Maxime Sonkes, CEO of wikipower and comparator-energie.be. European gas stocks are at a level lower than that of the previous yearwhich feeds concerns.
While energy suppliers’ prices generally change at the beginning of each month, consumers must consider securing a fixed price contract quickly to avoid future increases. However, with the rapid development of the situation, it is difficult to predict the management that prices will take in the coming months.
What future for energy?
Recent geopolitical developments have turned the global energy landscape upside down. While the price of oil, gas and fuel oil continues to evolve, European consumers must sail with caution. The current situation could encourage some to review their energy strategies, in particular by securing fixed prices contracts.
In this uncertain context, it is crucial to remain informed and to monitor market trends. What adjustments should consumers consider to better prepare for any energy prices increases in the near future?
The author relied on artificial intelligence to enrich this article.
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