(BFM Stock Exchange) – The advertising group once again atomed expectations, with growth in comparable data of 5.9% in the second quarter. The company has slightly raised its growth target. But the market goes beyond these good performances and the title shows the strongest withdrawal of the CAC 40.
This is called, on the market, a “Beat and Raise”, when a company exceeds expectations and raises its objectives.
This is the case of Publicis, the first company of CAC 40 to deliver complete results in this semi -annual publication season. The advertising group has further released growth above consensus and has raised its growth target for 2025.
Yet the market sanctions these good announcements. On the Paris Stock Exchange, the company’s title fell by 2.3 %% around 12:10 p.m., after having increased up to 3.8%.
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An increase in overly light perspectives and a negative commentary on Sapient
“We believe that the market can be disappointed by the timid revision upward revision of forecasts for the whole year, which implies a slowdown in the second half compared to the first,” explains BFM Bourse, Adrien de Saint Hilaire, analyst at Bank of America.
Publicis has only “modestly” noted its growth objective in comparable data, to “around 5%”, against “4%to 5%” previously. This involves deceleration in the second half of comparable data (4.5% for the second half against 5.4% for the first).
“We believe that these new forecasts are cautious because they contain many precautionary comments on the macroeconomic environment,” continues Adrien de Saint Hilaire.
Asked, several other value specialists are advancing as a track the fact that the company’s management stressed “the disruption of the advertising and communication sector”, as a source of concern of the market, even if management assured that this favored the group.
Two analysts also note that dropping out of action coincided with the moment when the CEO, Arthur Sadoun, gave indications on Sapient, a digital transformation subsidiary and digital consulting and which represents around 15% of the company’s income. The manager explained that Sapient would still show a negative performance in the second half, online with that of the first, and despite a slight temporary improvement in the second quarter.
The CEO nevertheless specified that this trend was integrated from the company’s perspectives. “In any case, this does not deserve a drop of more than 2% of the action,” said an analyst. “Honestly, the fundamentals are good and the decline is not deserved, even if it is true that the market is attentive to Sapient. This amounts to focusing on the only negative point,” abounds another.
Competition in the rear view mirror
To return to the group’s results in the second quarter, Publicis generated income
3.62 billion euros, reflecting growth of 4.6% in published data and 5.9% in organic data (at constant exchange rates and perimeter). This last rate reflects an acceleration compared to the 4.9% recorded in the first quarter.
Especially the growth of publicis happily exceeds expectations. According to a consensus quoted by Allnvest Securities, analysts tapped on an increase in income of 4.5% in comparable data in the second quarter and UBS held an increase of 4.8%. Oddo BHF greets “very solid organic growth”.
Publicis again leaves competition to the competition. The company explains that its organic growth reflects an outperformance of 800 basic points (8 percentage points) compared to the average of its competitors (Dentsu, WPP, Omnicom, Intepublic) in the second quarter.
Oddo BHF notes in passing that the group’s performance clearly exceeds that of WPP (which had delivered growth of 3% in the second quarter on the basis of turnover and not net income).
Publicis confirms “his leadership with a difference that increases compared to the average of the sector given the very sharp decline for WPP (which mentioned a decrease in its turnover of 5.5% to 6% for the second quarter, editor’s note). The difference between the two agencies should be 10 points in the quarter, which is the highest level ever reached”, continues the broker.
The company has distant its rivals in terms of new contracts. In net, Publicis, according to JPMorgan data, garnered for 5.2 billion euros of new net invoices in the first half of 2025, a figure that places the group far, very far ahead of its nearest rival (interpublic with 200 million euros).
The company has won several emblematic contracts over the period, including the media budget in the United States and Coca-Cola Canada or the Média Budget March, estimated at 1.7 billion dollars. These two contracts were won at the WPP beard, which held them previously.
A differentiating model
In addition to these commercial successes, the company has good retention of its customers. “Not only do we earn more competition but we have lost less. We have not lost a single big customer since the beginning of the year. Within these existing customers, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, we have increased our income from almost 300 basic points (3 percentage points),” said the CEO of the company, Arthur Sadoun, to analysts.
“The trend is therefore very good and publicis market paint gains continue,” says Oddo BHF.
The company once again draws the fruits of its transformation to data, digital and artificial intelligence. The group stressed that it has invested around 12 billion euros since 2015, a figure which includes the redemptions of the digital transformation company sat and the specialist in data analysis and digital marketing Epsilon.
So many initiatives that have led Publicis to offer an offer combining creation and given, with customer personalization customers. And therefore to differentiate yourself.
“Publicis stood out from its peers by investing massively in data (Epsilon) and the digital transformation (SAPIENT) which gives it the advantage” compared to its competitors “to be able to position themselves with advertisers as an architect of omnichannel ecosystems with advice on long -term brand vision and the use of AI, the creation of interactions with other platforms (Amazon, Google Local, Tiktok, etc.), the generation of owners’ data ecosystems outside Meta (which represents around 50% of digital budgets), RGPD conformity services, “develops TP ICAP Midcap.
Customer expenses that do not slow down
Regarding the half -yearly results, the group has gained growth of 5.4% in comparable data over all of the first six months of 2025. The operating margin increased from 7.1% to 1.24 billion euros, representing 17.4% of turnover, against 17.3% over the first six months of 2024 and 17.4% expected by consensus. The company’s net profit increased by 6.6% over one year to 824 million euros. The cash flow before variation in working capital requirement increased by 11.3% to 828 million euros.
With this good first half, Publicis therefore noted its growth forecast for the year 2025. The advertising group indicated rely on growth in comparable data “close” by 5% against 4% to 5% previously. The group also intends to advance its “slightly” margin compared to the 18% recorded in 2024.
Conversely, Publicis lowered its target of cash flow due to negative exchange effects evaluated around 80 million euros. The company thus expects a “free cash flow” of around 1.9 billion euros against 1.9 billion at 2 billion euros previously.
Asked about the expenses of its customers at a time when macroeconomic uncertainty prevails, Arthur Sadoun assured that he had not noted any palpable change between the first and the second quarter.
“Maybe we are expecting some impacts in the second semester but so far everything is fine,” he said. “Customers understand very well that they have to invest in marketing if they want to preserve and grow their market share,” the manager has open.
Arthur Sadoun also pointed out that the company’s sector was “upset” with “our two most important competitors who reduce costs, restructure and experience changes of management” while at the same time “our customers have never needed so much to be accompanied at a time when AI modifies the competitive landscape”.
In this context, Publics is “in a position of strength” because the group has already carried out its transformation, he assured. “And our almost 700 million euros in organic net income gains give us the strike force to invest in model note and our employees,” continued Arthur Sadoun.
With this in mind, Publicis intends to continue to win contract gains and strengthen in AI via targeted acquisitions.
To simplify, we refer here to the net income of the company which corresponds to income after deduction of costs reappoirable to customers.
Julien Marion – © 2025 BFM Bourse
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