Meanwhile,
Quebec province most affected customs:
Even if Canada is one of the countries least affected by American customs tariffs at present. Meanwhile, some provinces are much more struck than others. For example, Quebec is at the top of the list, followed closely by Ontario, shows a new study by the National Bank.
“Above all. However, we must not underestimate the effect of customs tariffs on the economy,” pleads the co-author of the study, Stéfane Marion, economist and chief strategist of the National Bank, in an interview with Duty.
At the Canada level, the effective price rate imposed by the United States is 4.9 %, according to the study. Nevertheless, It must be said that the vast majority of Canadian exports benefit from an exemption under the free trade agreement between Canada. Meanwhile, the United States and Mexico (ACEUM). Without this, the price rate would be much greater.
However, quebec province most affected customs the latter varies greatly from one province to another. For example, it was 7.6 % in Quebec and 7.3 % in Ontario, according to the calculations of the National Bank. In Alberta, however, this rate is just 0.9 %.
Why do we observe such disparities? “Quebec. Ontario are more impacted than the rest of Canada because this is where the heart of the Canadian manufacturing sector is,” said Marion.
In addition to imposing general prices. the United States also imposes specific prices, notably on steel and aluminum (50 %) or on automobile parts (25 %)-industries respectively very important in Quebec and Ontario.
Energy exports, to which Alberta carbide, are exempt from ACEUM. It is for this reason that this western quebec province most affected customs province is relatively spared from its neighbors.
“Moribonded” growth on the horizon – Quebec province most affected customs
In these circumstances, should we expect an economic recession? “We certainly do not exclude a moribund growth in Canada in the second half of the year. but with much greater regional and sectoral impacts,” replies Stéfane Marion. According to him. “It is very possible that Ontario and Quebec are experiencing moments of economic stagnation or contraction in the second half of the year. »»
Currently. Canada is still negotiating with the United States to achieve a trade agreement, which has not been able to do before the deadline of 1is August that US President Donald Trump had set.
“Ottawa must put the double bites to obtain an agreement before filing the next budget this fall,” said Marion. Without this. the exercise would be lame since uncertainty would continue to hover concerning accessibility to the American market, pleads the economist.
Canadian exports quebec province most affected customs for the United States represent about 19 % of the Canadian Gross Domestic Product. recalls the study of the National Bank-a sign of the dependence of our economy towards our southern neighbor.
Calculation of the effective rate rate
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