A serious warning. David Betz, professor of military studies at King’s College in London, affirms in an article published in Military Strategy Magazine That the main threat to security in the West no longer comes from outside, but from the inside, and more specifically a risk of civil war. According to him, France and the United Kingdom are the two Western countries most exposed to a violent conflict, after having already known “Precursor incidents”.
The specialist identifies several disturbing signals. In France, terrorist attacks and violence in certain suburbs have strengthened the fears linked to “A cultural fragmentation”. As for the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party and former leader of the Brexit Party, attributes social tensions to migration policies. He denounces in particular deep cultural divisions and a “Two -speed police” Who would promote certain minorities, a context that he said could destabilize the country.
Conducive conditions
For David Betz, the conditions conducive to such a conflict are already present in the two countries: cultural fractures, economic stagnation, distrust of institutions … “In a country where these conditions are met, the risk of a real civil war is 4 % per year. Starting from this hypothesis, we can conclude that this risk is 18.5 % over five years “adds the researcher.
Faced with this worrying scenario, the professor calls for an urgent revision of military and government strategies. It advocates the creation of secure areas to protect civilians, the reinforced protection of vital infrastructure and strategic weapons, as well as the development of doctrines and action plans specifically adapted to civil wars.
