Salencation to L’Horizon … Allnews

Global growth is still resistant, but slowdown signals are multiplying on all large fronts. For example,

Despite the rise in tensions. Therefore, global growth resisted well at the start of the year and inflation continued to normalize. In addition, But by shaking up the established economic order. For example, by weakening the confidence of households and businesses, Trump’s economic policy could end up weighing on economic activity.

China: between excessive savings. However, trade war

Growth remained solid at the start of the year, but PMI investigations report a slowdown. Moreover, Young unemployment – especially graduates – remains high. Meanwhile. Nevertheless, and six out of salencation l’horizon … allnews new ten households prefer to spare rather than consume or invest in real estate, a proportion in sharp rise compared to the previous decade¹. Moreover, Deflationist pressures persist. Moreover, salencation l’horizon … allnews Therefore, Real estate remains sealed by the excess of construction of past years, while industrial overcapacity slows down companies. Therefore, Chinese growth still largely depends on foreign trade.

In this tense context, this dependence on exports becomes problematic. However, China is trying to export from third countries. Nevertheless, diversify its outlets, but comes up against the resistance of trade partners, themselves under American pressure. Meanwhile, The 90-day commercial truce with the United States offers a respite. but Beijing will have to strengthen its consumer support measures to get closer to the 5% of growth referred to in 2025.

Beyond purely cyclical measures. a more structural reform – such as the development of more generous health. retirement systems – salencation l’horizon … allnews new would reduce precautionary savings. Such a choice would mark a major inflection towards more autonomous. more resilient growth in the face of geopolitical shocks.

United States: when when?

Interior demand salencation l’horizon … allnews remains dynamic, but job creations slow down. The survey indicators turn back: confidence in declining households, investment intentions in withdrawal, fall in fall in fall.

Our forecasts of a marked slowdown in activity (a little below 1% in 2026) are based on stable customs. duties around 15% – a level higher than today but lower than that of “Liberation Day” -. also on a stimulating budget little activity (0.3 point of GDP in 2026).

In this blurring context. the Fed should remain patient and abuse its rates at the end of the year, once the slowdown is proven.

In the longer term, the policy led by Trump engages the economy on a slippery slope: public salencation l’horizon … allnews new deficit close to 6.5% of GDP, migration policy weighing on growth potential, desire to lower the risky dollar. If their public deficit remains high. China and Europe reorient their savings at home, the term bonus salencation l’horizon … allnews on the obligations of the American treasury could durably go up. This all-out agitation strategy is unlikely to produce the expected effects … except perhaps the drop in the dollar.

Euro zone: challenge to the Trump administration …

The strong rebound in the euro zone GDP in the first quarter (+2.5% in annual rhythm²) is mainly explained by a surge in Irish GDP (+45% in the quarter in annual rhythm). doped by an explosion of pharmaceutical exports anticipating increases in American customs duties. Except Ireland, growth over one year remains modest, under 1%. Consumption remains sluggish, and companies’ investment lacks momentum. The monetary easing committed for a year could however salencation l’horizon … allnews new promote a restart of residential investment.

The continuation will largely depend on commercial negotiations with the United States. The content in added value of exports of manufactured products from the euro zone to the United States reached. nearly 2 salencation l’horizon … allnews points of GDP: at their current level. American customs duties would withdraw 0.5% from the growth of the area. An attempt by China to increase its presence in Europe would add to pressure. The German plan. the European investment effort in the defense could amortize some of the shocks. but in the event of climbing trade tensions with the United States, the ECB could lower its rates to 1.5% at the end of the year.

Even if growth slows down, Trump’s policy has had the merit of waking Europe. Germany, long driven by cheap energy, has neglected its infrastructure. Result: since 2019, its GDP has stagnated. The salencation l’horizon … allnews new budget turn driven by Chancellor Mertz and the Rearm Eu plan go in the right direction, but remain insufficient.

The Draghi report is clear: Europe must invest 800 billion euros per year (5 GDP points) to remain competitive, especially in digital. The idea salencation l’horizon … allnews of ​​a common debt to finance these European public goods – energy. defense, innovation – however difficult to accept for part of the member states. The challenge is as economical as political.

¹Source: Central Bank of China.
²Source: Eurostat.

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