Statistics published in the United States have tended to disappoint-Monday Report de Bordier

In the euro zone, the confidence indices of the EC in the economy (from 94.2 to 95.8), industry (from -11.8 to -10.4) and services (from 3.1 to 4.1) all surprised upwards in July, just like T2 GDP ( +0.1% T/T vs +0%). Consequently,

Economy

Statistics published in the United States have tended to disappoint. Meanwhile, The upward surprise of T2 GDP growth ( +3% t/t annualized vs +2.6% is.) Is due to the decline in imports. Nevertheless, The Manufacturer’s ISM disappoints by backing up from 49 to 48 in July (vs 49.5 is.). Moreover, Likewise, job creations were lower than expected in July (+73,000 vs 104,000 is.) And previous months were revised downwards for a total of -258,000. Moreover, PCE inflation is slightly higher than expectations ( +2.6% A/A VS +2.5% is.) In June. Therefore, In the euro zone, the confidence statistics published united states have indices of the EC in the economy (from 94.2 to 95.8), industry (from -11.8 to -10.4) and services (from 3.1 to 4.1) all surprised upwards in July, just like T2 GDP ( +0.1% T/T vs +0%). In addition, In China, manufacturing PMIs (from 49.7 to 49.3) and services (from 50.5 to 50.1) are down and lower than expected in July.

Planetary limits

According to the mid-year report of the International Energy Agency, electrical demand should grow 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, or C.2X the growth in overall energy demand. However, Renewable production should exceed in 2025. Similarly, 2026 that from coal, and CO2 emissions linked to electrical production thus mark a tray, before lowering.

Obligations

In the US. Therefore, after the publication of the NFP whose revisions have erased almost all of the gains of the last 3 months, the market has experienced a Risk Off movement, and statistics published united states have the 10 years lost 17PB with a “Bull Steepening” of the curve. Furthermore, The rate expectations in September increased to almost 90% probability of decline, and to 2.5 drops by December. In addition, an Fed governor announced his resignation, opening the door to an outsider to potentially replace J. In addition, Powell as president. However, This week will be quieter in publications, with the ISM of services as the only notable element.

Feeling of traders

Bourse

The markets opened up after Friday’s saddler-off triggered by contradictory US statistics (increased PCE. employment at half mast). On the macro side we will have the ISM in the US. the PPI in the euro zone as well as the BOE (-0.25% expected). This week will publish: AMD, Disney, BP, Rheinmetall, etc. Still volatility in perspective with the implementation of customs taxes on Friday.

Devises

Following the bad US employment figures on Friday, the statistics published united states have $ dropped from $/CHF 0.8168 to 0.8050. It stabilizes this morning at $/CHF 0.8080 and $/JPY 147.80. €/$ bounces to 1.1557, sup. 1,1450, res. Additionally, 1,1650. The announcement of US customs duties to Switzerland by 39% orients CHF slightly drops to €/CHF 0.9345, sup. 0.9275, res. 0.9400. The £ consolidates £/$ 1.3268, sup. 1,3180, res. 1,3,500. Gold is treated at $ 3355/OZ.

Markets

The status quo decided by the Fed. without unanimity in the vote, and the disappointments on American employment have notably reduced sovereign rates to 10 years in US of ~ 15PB (EUR: ~ -5PB). Actions also retreat (US: -2.3%; Europe: -2.6%and emerging: -2.5%). This mood “Risk off” is also found in the appreciation of the USD (dollar index: +0.5%) and gold ( +0.5%). To follow this week: trade balance. ISM of consumer services and credit in the United States; Consumer price index, retail sales and investor confidence statistics published united states have index (Fentix) in the euro zone; Exchange reserves and trade balance in China.

Swiss market

To follow this week: Inflation July (FSA). PMI July index, T3 employment indicator (KOF), cyclical survey (KOF), unemployment July (Seco), currency reserves at the end of July (SNB) and consumption climate (SECO). The following companies will publish results: Oerlikon. Adecco, Ascom, U-Blox, Amrize, Galenica, Zurich Insurance, Financière Tradition, Gam, Sandoz, Swisscom and Mobimo.

Actions

APPLE (Core Holding) published results above expectations, carried by the iPhone 16 ($ 44.6 billion vs $ 40 billion is.) And services ($ 27.42 billion vs $ 2.85 is.). The company has recorded ~ $ 800 million costs related to customs tariffs in T3 and anticipates ~ $ 1.1 billion in T4, despite its diversification efforts (iPhone produced in India, Mac/iPad/Watch in Vietnam). The market remains attentive to a possible hardening under Trump around the “made in USA”.

Energy: OPEC+ confirmed statistics published united states have its decision to increase its production by 547kbl/d as early as September. returning to its level in November 2023. The market will remain in the end of 2025 and in 2026, unless major events.

Big Techs results MICROSOFT (Core Holding) et META (HR) were well received by the market. carried by ever more ambitious investment plans in AI. For 2026th, consensus is now table on record investment expenses: $ 83 billion for Microsoft, $ 90 billion for Meta and $ 89.4 billion for alphabet.

We are withdrawing NOVO NORDISK From our Core Holdings recommendations after a warning profit linked to a disappointing commercial dynamic. a strong impact of preparation pharmacies. The 2025 objectives are lowered, visibility is reduced and many uncertainties. The appointment of an internal CEO does not reassure. We advise to reallocate the positions in Astrazeneca, also in Core Holding.

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Performances