Astronomers evoke a chance in 23 that he crushes it. It’s weak, but it’s not zero. It measures a hundred meters wide and its speed exceeds 20,000 km/h. If the asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes the moon, it will not be a simple anecdotal impact. We speak of a crater of a kilometer in diameter and millions of debris projected in space. Some could even derive up to terrestrial orbit. Not enough to threaten life on earth, but enough to hinder everything that revolves around: satellites, space missions, upcoming lunar stations.
NASA and ESA keep an eye on it
For the moment, the probability of an impact remains around 4.3 % and scheduled for December 22, 2032, but it will be reassessed in 2028, when the asteroid will return within an observation range. In the meantime, space agencies follow the file closely. The risk for the earth is dismissed, less than 0.002 % chance of hitting us, but the moon remains in the viewfinder.
An impact on the moon would first be a visual shock because we could even observe the effects from Earth! But it would also be a technical problem since dust and projected fragments could pollute the orbits used by future inhabited missions or satellites on the way to the moon. We are talking here of a “space shrapnel cloud” capable of damaging active satellites, or even complicating certain missions around the moon. At a time when NASA is preparing Artemis and the Gateway station is planned, the space calendar could be seriously disturbed.
Zero risk does not exist
As there are more and more devices revolve around the moon, the slightest orbital hazard can have cascade effects. The object (more than 100 meters in diameter) which, if it had targeted the earth, would have had the power of a nuclear bomb. The moon would take the shock, but the side effects could be felt elsewhere.
So do not panic, but no indifference either because 2024 YR4 is not a killer asteroid. It is not a threat to humanity, but it reminds us that in terms of space, collisions are not just a science fiction scenario, even when they “only” the moon!
What we risk concretely if the asteroid strikes the moon
- A massive crater: the impact could dig a hole almost a kilometer in diameter on the lunar surface. Nothing dramatic for the moon, but visible in the long term.
- A cloud of debris: Several million fragments could be projected in space. Up to 10 % could derive towards terrestrial orbit, according to certain estimates.
- Risks for satellites: these debris could meet the trajectory of geostationary satellites or in low orbit. Not a disaster scenario, but a real danger for certain infrastructure.
- Disruptions for lunar missions: Artemis, Gateway, or any other mission around the Moon could be forced to modify their plans. A “dirty” orbital space is much more difficult to manage.
- No danger for the earth: the asteroid will not strike the planet, and the debris are not supposed to cross the atmosphere. No risk for populations, but stakes for space, yes.
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