The automotive industry could lose more than 20% of its workforce by 2035, due to the drop in production in France, growing automation and the rise of the electric vehicle, which demands less labor, according to a study published Thursday.
Employment should drop by 17% over the next ten years, to some 280,400 positions, according to the projections of a study commissioned by EDEC (commitment to develop employment and skills, which brings together state, professional organizations of employers, unions, etc.).
Excluding job creations in batteries, estimated at some 19,000 by 2035, “the fall could be even greater”, at 22.7% of the current workforce (or almost 75,000 less jobs).
A decline due to “the drop in vehicle production in France” (reducing labor needs in assembly factories, among equipment manufacturers and suppliers) and “increasing automation” (which notably affects positions of workers and technicians).
Other explanations: “Pressure on margins encourages companies to limit replacements and recruitments”, as well as “the rise in power of the electric vehicle”. An evolution that “plays a major role” because the electric vehicle is “less intensive in labor for assembly” and requires “fewer components such as metal or rubber parts”.
The equipment manufacturers could be the most affected, according to this study, with a 30% drop in their workforce by 2035, due to Asian competition, notably Chinese, and the reintegration of certain production lines.
The employment structure in the automotive industry will also evolve, with an increase in the share of engineers and technical executives, while the share of workers “continues to retreat, but more moderately than in the past, a reflection of increased demand for increased technical skills”. Administrative functions tend to decrease.
The age pyramid in the “constitutes a major challenge”: 18% of the current workforce will have reached retirement age in 2030, and 29% in 2035. An evolution which “poses both a challenge to renew skills and an opportunity to process profiles”.
Despite everything, the “recruitment needs” will remain significant “due to retirements and mobility between sectors: the study figures at some 6200 the positions to be filled each year.
It is therefore necessary to “adapt training and attractiveness policies”, “despite a global trajectory of contraction”.
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP / AFP
