Around 11:45 am, the American currency appeared stable (-0.01%) compared to the euro, at 1.1720 dollars, the European single currency operated near its highest since September 2021 against the dollar.
The dollar is down slightly on Monday, penalized by progress in trade negotiations between Washington and its partners, as well as by the possible imminent adoption of Donald Trump’s budgetary law.
The signs of commercial progress approaching the end of the partial suspension of American customs duties, on July 9, reduce the expectations of a revival of inflation and revive “optimism on global growth”, noted Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI AM.
Trade negotiations with Canada, in particular, resumed after the cancellation on Sunday by Ottawa of his digital giants, qualified by the US President as “direct and obvious” against the United States.
The dollar had already fell back on Friday in the wake of the trade agreement between Beijing and Washington, which notably bears, according to the White House, on the acceleration of Chinese deliveries of rare land to the United States.
Around 9:45 am GMT (11:45 HEC), the American currency was stable (-0.01%) compared to the euro, at 1.1720 dollars, the European single currency evolving near its highest since September 2021 against the dollar.
But the greenback fell more clearly against other currencies, losing 0.31% against the Japanese yen or 0.24% against the Swiss franc.
The possible adoption on Monday by the US Senate of the Mégaprojet of Trump’s budgetary law, which he hopes to see promulgated before July 4, contributes to this slight decrease.
The markets are in fact concerned with a possible “negative impact” on “the budgetary prospects of the American government”, explains Lee Hardman, MUFG analyst.
The dollar is also penalized by press information on the possible designation by Mr. Trump of the successor of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, before the end of his mandate, which could add pressure on him to lower the rates.
The market “already fully integrates a rate section in September and even attributes a probability of 20% for July”, according to Mr. Innes.
This week will be published in the United States this week, the ISM manufacturing activity index for June, the ADP survey on job creation in the private sector in June and the report of the Ministry of Labor in June, as well as inflation figures in Europe.
Finally, the annual European Central Bank (ECB) starts on Monday in Sintra, Portugal, and will end on July 2.
