The big maneuvers begin. The Prime Minister will propose this Tuesday, July 15, at least 40 billion euros in savings to rectify the budget of France. The levers are numerous, from the freezing of social benefits (pensions, housing allowances, etc.) to the fight against abuse (sick leave) via tax solidarity (contribution of the highest incomes) and the greening of the economy (taxes on polluting transport). All of France will have to make efforts, warned François Bayrou.
All ? No ! Because irreducible French are still and always resist the reality of the facts. Expenses and tax increases will barely be announced that they will be criticized, weakened and then modified during the fall budget debate. It is the very spirit of parliamentarism and the foundation of democracy.
However, the irresponsibility of our political class has never worried so much. Let’s say it clearly: this budget exercise could be fatal in the country. Until then virtual, the scenario of a credit accident seems more plausible every month. Alert signals are constantly accumulating. France is already financed on less favorable conditions than Spain, Greece and Portugal.
Last week, she even did less well than Italy. A shock, when you know that transalpine debt remains significantly higher than ours (140 % against 114 % of GDP) and that rating agencies hardly consider it better than a speculative product (BAA2 note). But here it is: Italy has reduced its deficit by half in a year, it is therefore regaining the confidence of investors. France continues to live above its means: its expenses represent 57 % of GDP, 10 points more than the average of European countries.
There is one thing that markets hate even more than budget laxity, and for which they will not grant us any mercy: political instability.
The budgetary guidelines presented Tuesday will measure the courage of François Bayrou. Because despite his call for “collective effort”, His savings plan remains the best kept secret in Paris. Additional expenses even continue to be decided each week, despite common sense: the Prime Minister promised, for example, to resume union proposals, presented in June after the Conclave, to improve the retirement of women and advance the age of departure at full rate.
The bill will amount to 1.5 billion euros. We are no longer close … Emmanuel Macron will also note the defense budget at least 15 billion euros, during a speech to the armies this Sunday. The opportunity, he hopes, to straighten its popularity rating. The savings have never brought anyone in the polls, alas.
François Bayrou’s task is all the more perilous as he composes with a fragmented assembly which threatens to censor it this fall. However, there is one thing that markets hate even more than budgetary laxity, and for which they will not grant us any mercy: political instability.
By Lucie Robequain, director of editorial offices of La Tribune
