The global stock markets increased and the euro firm on Monday, carried by a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union which appeased tensions and brought from clarity to a crucial week, dominated by the monetary policy meetings of the American Federal Reserve (FED) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Washington has concluded a framework agreement with the EU, imposing an import rate of 15 % on most European products-or half of the rate initially threatened-, a week after finding common ground with Japan to reduce customs duties on automotive imports.
The countries hastened to finalize trade agreements before the deadline of 1is august. Discussions between the United States and China are scheduled for Monday in Stockholm on Monday, while an extension of 90 days of the commercial break between the first two world economies is expected.
“A rate of 15 % on European products, forced energy purchases and American military equipment, and no price response from Europe, it is not a negotiation, it is the art of deal”, analyzes Prashant Newnaha, Senior Asia-Pacific Senior Stratege at TD Securities. “It’s a great victory for the United States. »»
The term contracts on the S&P 500 won 0.4 % and those on the Nasdaq 0.5 %, while the euro firm up against the dollar, the pound sterling and the yen. Future Europeans jumped almost 1 %.
In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei fell slightly after reaching a one-year summit last week, while the enlarged MSCI share index of Japan has increased by 0.27 %, brushing the highest in almost four years recorded recently.
If the basic price of 15 % remains deemed too high by many Europeans, while the EU initially hoped for a “zero” type agreement, it remains preferable at the rate of 30 % which had been brandished as a threat.
The agreement with the EU offers business visibility and avoids a major commercial conflict between these two allies, which represent nearly a third of world trade.
“Taken as a whole, recent agreements with Japan, the EU, and the discussions planned for Stockholm between the United States and China, really reduce the risk of prolonged trade war,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“The importance of the August deadline for the prices has grown considerably. »»
The Australian dollar, often perceived as a barometer of the risk of risk, earned 0.12 % to 0.65725 dollars at the start of the session, close to its eight -month summit reached last week.
Fed and pending boj
In a dense week in events, investors will scrutinize the monetary policy meetings of the Fed and Boj, as well as the monthly report on American employment and the quarterly results of the Apple, Microsoft and Amazon giants.
If the Fed and Boj should maintain their unchanged rates, the comments of the managers will be decisive to anticipate the future orientation of the rates. The trade agreement with Japan opens the door to a possible increase in rates by BOJ this year.
The Fed should, for its part, remain cautious about possible rate drops, those responsible wishing to have more data to assess whether the prices aggravate inflation before softening the monetary policy.
But the tensions between the White House and the Central Bank on monetary policy have accentuated, Donald Trump repeatedly accusing the President of the Fed, Jerome Powell, not to lower the rates. Two members of the Fed Council appointed by Trump exposed their arguments in favor of a drop in rates this month.
Ing economists believe that December could mark the start of rate drops, but that “it could be a reduction of 50 base points, if signs of weakness on employment and GDP growth are confirmed, as we anticipate”.
“This would follow a scheme similar to that of the Fed in 2024, when she waited to be fully convinced before engaging in a lower rate environment,” they say in a note.
