The North-Côotière population could fall by 17 % by 2051 according to the demographic projection of the Institut de la Statistique du Québec (ISQ). L’Isq published its 2025 update on Wednesday which revives the forecasts of 2024.
This demographic decline is the strongest in Quebec, according to these forecasts.
This phenomenon is mainly explained by a negative interregional migration, according to the demographer of theIsq Frédéric Fleury-Payeur. This means that a higher number of people leave the North Shore to settle in other regions of the province.
Unlike neighboring regions that have improved their internal migratory balance, the North Shore fails to retain its inhabitants, explains the demographer. The profile of the starters is often that of young people who leave for studies or to work in large centers.
The decline of the population is due to a negative interregional migration, according to demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur. (Archives photo)
Photo : Radio-Canada / Camille Carpentier
He underlines that the North Shore has slightly higher fertility than other regions of East-du-Québec and an international migratory balance comparable to that of Bas-Saint-Laurent and superior to the Gaspésie.
However, these factors are not enough to compensate for interregional losses.
Demographic forecasts for all of Quebec have been revised downwards compared to 2024, due to a global tendency to lower fertility and the review of immigration thresholds, specifies Mr. Fleury-Payeur. The decrease in population planned for the North Shore was 13.3 % in 2024.
Concrete consequences
With the new figures, the population of the North Coast would drop from 90,200 inhabitants currently to 74,900 in 2051. A decline which undermines the demographic weight of the Côte-Nord in Quebec. The region will then only represent 0.8 % of the province’s population against 1.1 % today.
A situation that leaves doubt about the political weight of the North Shore, but also on its ability to renew its workforce while the share of the active population from 20 to 64 years will decrease by 20 % between 2024 and 2051 according to projections.
This dynamic will lead to an aging population while that of 65 years and over should remain stable according to the‘ISQ.
There may be real shortages of labor if economic activity remains quite strong relative to the renewal of the workforce.
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur specifies that the exact consequences depend on the specifics of the region. He nuances the idea that a smaller population would necessarily be synonymous with less prosperity, but that the main challenge is to ensure that they have enough labor to meet economic needs.
In a context of housing crisis, the need for housing should decrease by 12.4 % at the same time as the population, but not in an equivalent manner.
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur explains that the elderly are more likely to live alone. The aging of the population therefore implies a greater number of dwellings per capita and can compensate for the decline in the total population.
