For the Japanese Prime Minister, it is a bitter backhand. The government coalition of Shigeru Ishiba lost the majority in the upper room of the Parliament in elections on Sunday. While 125 of the 248 seats were renewed, the liberal democratic party (PLD, conservative right) in power and its ally Komeito (center-right) only gained 41 seats, according to the projections of the national media. However, 50 seats are needed to keep the majority.
Blow for Ishiba
Depending on just ten months, Shigeru Ishiba, 68, could already be pushed towards the exit. Especially since his government coalition is already in the minority in the lower chamber of the Parliament, since the anticipated legislative elections of the fall which he had himself summoned, after having taken the head of the PLD in September.
“The situation is difficult, we have to examine it very humbly and seriously,” Japanese Prime Minister said on Sunday evening. Asked about his future, he replied: “We can do nothing before we saw the final results, but I will be aware of my responsibility. »»
Extreme right breakthrough
The anti-immigration Populist Party Sanseeito, at the slogan “Japan first”, makes him a very strong breakthrough with 16 seats won according to the polls out of the polls, while he only holds two in the current assembly.
This extreme right formation, which encroaches on the votes of the PLD, advocates “hardened rules and restrictions” in matters of immigration, castigates “globalism”, denounces “radical” gender policies, and calls for recondizing the strategies of vaccination and decarbonation. Under pressure due to positions deemed prorusians, the Sanseeito fiercely denied having everything related to Moscow.
What scenario for the future?
Japan could now enter “on unknown terrain, with a minority government in the two rooms of the Parliament, an unprecedented situation since the Second World War,” said Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University.
In the absence of an alternative coalition between fragmented and incompatible opposition parties, “the probable scenario could now be a great coalition between the PLD and the Constitutional Democratic Party” (center left), the main opposition force, estimates Hidehiro Yamamoto, professor of politics at the University of Tsukuba.
Minority in the lower room, the PLD and Komeito had to compromise with the opposition to vote their texts.
Inflation and customs law
This political uncertainty comes even though the economic situation darkens: inflation remains strong (+ 3.3 % in June excluding fresh products), pulled by a vertiginous outbreak of rice prices which have doubled in the space of a year.
In addition, Donald Trump’s customs offensive plunged automotive sales to the United States, a sector that represents 8 % of jobs in the archipelago. The threat of generalized surcharge of 25 % on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.
To alleviate the inflationary impact, Shigeru Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended from energy subsidies, and has committed to pour aid checks to citizens. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.
