The relationship between used and new cars becomes alarming

Are we going to arrive in a kind of dead end? The French automotive market seems to be stuck: new vehicles are not sold well, and the opportunity is starting to mark the step … because the new does not sell enough. If used car sales were rather supported in the first months of the year, June and July were bad and fear a negative year For the second -hand market regularly beyond the five million units in France. The vicious circle seems however difficult to break as long as a recovery in new sales will not be observed. Especially since motorists already motorized and equipped with rather recent vehicles often show wait -and -see, in a decade when the choice of energy (hybrid, electric, thermal) has become complex.

Less than a new car for four occasions

The most telling indicator for the automotive market is the famous VO/VN ratio. In the years when the automotive market was vigorous in France, it could fall to a ratio of barely 2. lately, this same report explodes.

Over the first seven months of the year, the VO market is just stable at + 0.1 %. In July, sales were therefore bad with 489,000 transfers and above all a VO/VN ratio … of 4.21. The highest recorded for months.

Less and less recent occasion

Less than a new car sold for four occasions, it is indeed worrying. One of the European leaders in the sale of second -hand cars, Autoscout24, recalls the figures: “Sales of very young vehicles (1 year and less) collapse: – 20.2% compared to July 2024. The oldest vehicle segment (> 16 years) best performs (with +10.9% market share) and remains dominated by diesel engines (56.1% of sales) ”. The French therefore continue to plebisicate old opportunities, often because they have no choice.

A storing automotive market is also a market that is not renewed. OTC data next year on 2024 technical control should therefore show an aging of the car fleet in France again. In this context, fortunately the ZFE vacillates because more and more French people would be excluded from large metropolises.

The risk of tactical registrations

In the event of a market crisis, manufacturers tend to be a little more tempted by “tactical” registrations, such as demonstration vehicles or garage. Problem: these sales are often harmful because much less profitable than sales to individuals or business. In this little game, all automotive groups are at the same level. If manufacturers like Dacia, Suzuki or Tesla have high rates of sales to individuals, this is less the case for a Peugeot who has registered many more “manufacturers” and demonstration vehicles. An impression reinforced by the analyzes of Autoscout24: “Regarding the Stellantis decline of -8.5%, it should be noted that the figures of Opel and Fiat had been largely inflated by tactical sales in July 2024”.